“Oh, fuck, Denver versus Chicago…you’re gonna make me…”
Well, here I am again, earlier than scheduled, and certainly earlier than ever planned, and that’s because we’ve our first Trans-Atlantic game this week, kicking off at 2:30pm our time, 9:30am Eastern time, and 2022 on the West Coast. We’ve also got the thrilling prospect of two games featuring two 0-3 teams playing each other, which promises to excite everyone in the players’ immediate families. But let’s see how I’m doing over the season so far…
Porter vs The World (20-25, 13 correct scores – 7-8 last week, 3 correct scores)
Eesh, I had a horrendous early window – Baltimore blew chunks against the Colts, who deserved a well fought win, Tennessee didn’t even show up against Cleveland, Detroit made a mug of me…the list goes on. Fortunately, Miami putting up video game numbers, the Jets-Patriots game being as bad as advertised, and some of the more obviously lopsided games like Buffalo-Washington saved me from a bad week. I really wish I’d had the courage to take Arizona over Dallas, as something nagged at me that they’d be a problem for a complacent Cowboys team, alas, I didn’t. I still laughed though.
My scoring predictions have been generally too generous to bad teams, let’s try and fix that this week.
Detroit 34, Green Bay 20
Detroit, I think your long national nightmare might be over. You’re 3-1, and not just that, you won convincingly at Lambeau. It’s your moment, Detroit. Go back to your constituencies and prepare for playoff football. Their upturn since firing their DB coach last year is quite astounding, and Aidan Hutchinson looks like the next big star in the NFL.
Jordan Love came crashing to earth, although I don’t really think I can blame it all on him. For a Shanahan disciple, Matt LaFleur’s offense looks poorly designed, incapable of creating separation and space, and the playcalling looks confused. The seat’s getting just a little warm in the frozen tundra.
Atlanta vs. Jacksonville
London gets two teams that should be better than their records and performances suggest, with an abundance of talent and offensive weapons being misused by their coaches and playcalling. It’s hard to imagine either getting it together on a wet pitch at Wembley in a British October. Atlanta have kept most games close and won 2 of them, so on balance, I’ll take Atlanta in a close game.
Atlanta, one score.
Miami at Buffalo
Now this is the kind of game I fucking love; two of the best NFL teams to watch going head-to-head. Miami put up Madden numbers last week, while Buffalo have bounced back well from a baffling Week 1 loss to look much more like the contenders we envisaged. This was a great game last year, it’ll be a great game again, and I’m going to take the team I’m loving watching the most in the NFL right now to win it, barely.
Miami, one score.
Minnesota at Carolina
The first of the 0-3 games, and my God, what can you say about this lot? Minnesota look to be way off piste up in the North, whereas Carolina are largely who we thought they were, but are at least keeping games close and staying competitive. With Young back, and at home, I’ve got them winning here, in an emotional one for them. They’ve played well enough to deserve a win in the opening three weeks, and this is their time.
Carolina, one score.
Denver at Chicago
The second of our 0-3 classics, and surely, surely, this is the Denver moment where Payton finally gets the ship righted. That defense quit on him last week, and the whole team might if they can’t beat a hapless Chicago, who look utterly lost both on and off the field at the moment. I believe in Sean Payton, but it’s pretty clear that the job there is bigger than he and most others thought.
As for Matt Ebenezergoode, he’s naughty, naughty, very naughty, and sure to be fired about as soon as humanly possible. The only question is if there’ll be any assistant coaches there to be interim coach, or whether they’re all gonna get caught up in Operation Yewtree.
Denver, one score…? Nah, two scores plus.
Baltimore at Cleveland
Baltimore continue to confound and frustrate, they should absolutely be the one of the best teams in the league, but continue to play down to and bafflingly lose to opponents, losing to a spiky Indy team last week. Cleveland may be without Watson, unless he can find a massage therapist again, as he’s got a bad shoulder. Either way, I’ve got to take Baltimore. Surely this week. Surely.
Baltimore, one score.
Pittsburgh at Houston
Ooh, this is a nice one to take a daring pick. I really don’t rate Pittsburgh, and was astounded by Houston’s tenacity and skill last week. In CJ Stroud and Tank Dell, they’ve really got a nice combination brewing, and DeMeco Ryans seems to be as advertised in terms of getting his team to show up, even in games they wouldn’t be fancied to win. Pittsburgh are struggling for points and consistency, and with that and some goodwill behind Houston, this is my first upset pick this week.
Houston, one score.
LA Rams at Indianapolis
This is a tough pick, as LA have made close losses an art this year, whereas Indy are good fighters and have found ways to win. I believe LA are more talented, but I think Indy are playing better right now – and being at Lucas Oil, I’m taking them to win it, in a close one. There’s a really good coaching job happening in Indianapolis.
Indianapolis, one score.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
This should be an easy one for Tampa, particularly with Derek Carr struggling. As of the time of writing, I understand Carr will play through the pain, but even with him fully fit, the offense has flattered to deceive. Tampa, on the other hand, are having a nice little quietly fun season, and if they take this game, they’re going to quietly gain some ground in the division. I’ll back them to get it done in a typically close NFC South battle.
Tampa Bay, one score.
Washington at Philadelphia
This doesn’t feel like a contest. Washington’s smoke and mirrors show finally collapsed last week, and Philly are, sadly, as they’re incredibly annoying, still good. Throw in home advantage and this feels like one of the best chances of a blowout this week.
Philadelphia, two scores plus.
Cincinnati at Tennessee
This is difficult, as I don’t know which team is going to show up, and I don’t really have a clear idea of what either team is. Tennessee can be pretty terrible when they feel like it, whereas Cincinnati have been unconvincing even in victory so far this season. It’s one to watch, as the loser has a huge mountain to climb the rest of the season in order to make the playoffs.
Probably not one to watch too closely though, because, well, ugly football.
Cincinnati, one score.
Las Vegas at LA Chargers
Do you take the team that flatters to deceive and is all glitzy stadium and no glamour, or do you take the..ah. Vegas look really really poor, and not only that, Jimmy Garoppolo (who could’ve guessed he’d ever get injured?) is out today, and the keys to the battered, burnt out Acura get handed over to Aidan O’Connell, who was impressive in preseason, but is being asked a hell of a lot of here, even against a team like the Chargers, who embody the term ‘poorly coached’ every single week that passes. Neither of these teams is going anywhere fast, but I have to pick one, so I suppose I’ll take the Chargers, who, if they really are a serious football team, have to be winning games like this.
LA, one score.
New England at Dallas
This used to be a marquee matchup, but with New England providing all the entertainment of An Evening With Al Gore, and Dallas proving to be flat-track bullies last week, I don’t know how much interest this one will generate. Dallas are better almost all the way over the field, but weaker in the coaching booth. I think talent wins out, as Belichick the GM has given Belichick the HC too much to fix with that horrible roster.
Dallas, two scores plus.
Arizona at San Francisco
I never feel great about San Francisco games, but this feels even more like a trap game than usual. I have to hand it to Arizona and Jonathan Gannon, they’re playing balanced, carefree football, and they’ve been entertaining in every game so far, finally capping it off with a deserved win against Dallas. San Fran, meanwhile, have been a solid 3-0. On paper, I should be celebrating a 4-0 start, but I just don’t feel great about it somehow. I’m picking us, completely in the knowledge that I’ve probably jinxed it.
San Francisco, one score.
Kansas City at NY Jets
Lol.
Kansas City by two scores plus, probably about 3295235989235.
Seattle at NY Giants
I would’ve loved this game last year, but the Giants look directionless and are about two injuries away from starting inflatable tube men on the offensive line. Seattle look pretty strong, although their defense has been a bit all over the place of late. It’s hard not to see an easy Seattle win, and that NFC West is still a pretty damn good division.
Seattle, by two scores plus.