Saturday night’s all right…for mediocre games.
How is everyone? Looking forward to Christmas? I think I am, but first, let’s see how bad last week’s picks tanked my record. Without looking at any evidence, I’m guessing…bad.
Porter versus The World (103-90, 4-10(!) last week, 1 correct margin)
Easily, EASILY my worst week in a while. In fairness, I think you could call Detroit, Green Bay, and Miami’s losses pretty big upsets, but some just were inexcusable (why did I back Carolina?!). In others, the law of averages just evened out and I was on the wrong end of the score in some close (KC-Buffalo, Jacksonville-Cleveland) and absolutely dreadful (Raiders-Vikings) games. Hopefully I can bounce back this week. However, let’s talk Thursday first…
Las Vegas 63, LA Chargers 21
Well, our long national nightmare, and particularly Justin Herbert’s, is finally over, as Brandon Staley, the worst coach in the NFL, the darling of the analytics, but a failure to anyone who, you know, actually watches football, is gone, and he’s took one of the worst GMs in football with him too. Hallelujah. Those jobs will be popular ones in the offseason, because the roster’s an interesting one, and they certainly have a QB, as anyone who didn’t believe in Justin Herbert’s talent got to see exactly what this team looks like without him.
Raiders? Good win, a team playing hard for the interim coach. I’m not sure I’d give him the job, but it’s a fuck of a lot better than bringing Jon Gruden back. My advice to Raiders fans is, if Davis brings Gruden back, sell up and try and start a team back in Oakland. It’s over.
Minnesota (7-6) at Cincinnati (7-6)
One 7-6 here is a lot better than the others – I’ve been super impressed with Cincinnati post-Burrow injury, whereas the brief signs of life under Josh Dobbs for Minnesota have long since been extinguished. I’ll back the Bengals to keep it rolling here.
Cincinnati, one score.
Pittsburgh (7-6) at Indianapolis (7-6)
One 7-6 here is a lot better than the oth…
Pittsburgh are flatlining, Indy were awful last week….this is a tough one. With the flux Pittsburgh are in (and the rumours around Tomlin’s future), I think I’ll take Indy, but I think this will be pretty ugly.
Indy, one score.
Denver (7-6) at Detroit (9-4)
God, this would’ve been a no brainer as recently as a month ago – now it’s one of the harder picks this week. Who are the real Lions? The team that looked like one of the best in the NFL up to Thanksgiving, or the poor team since? Who are the real Broncos? The team that looked like one of the worst of all time up to Thanksgiving, or the good team since? Of the two, I think the Broncos are ascending – they’re certainly not a team I’d want to face in the playoffs – and I’ll back them to take this. The only way this doesn’t happen is if the Lions, backs against the wall, suddenly find themselves again. Should be an intriguing, and close, one.
Denver, one score.
Atlanta (6-7) at Carolina (1-12)
I’m not picking Carolina again, you’ve let me down once too often. Atlanta are dreadful, but surely not dreadful enough to lose here.
Atlanta, two scores plus.
Chicago (5-8) at Cleveland (8-5)
This is another hard call, and a great example of how records mean less later in the season sometimes – Cleveland are up and down, particularly on offense, whereas Chicago seem to have saved Matt Eberflus’s job (don’t tell me that’s spelt wrong, I’m not looking it up) by playing pretty hard for him the last few weeks. Post-Josh Sweat, that defense seems to be on the way up, and when you look after Justin Fields, he reveals himself to be not just competent, but pretty damn talented. Really tough call, but my instinct is the Bears rally comes to an end this week, only because Cleveland’s on the playoff bubble and needs it just that little bit more. Interesting game to watch.
Cleveland, one score.
Tampa Bay (6-7) at Green Bay (6-7)
Tough call, as I don’t really like either team for different reasons – Green Bay’s inexperience showed in a dreadful loss last week to a pasta chef, whereas Tampa force me to not trust their offense almost every week. Usual Cranky rules apply here – when unsure, take the home team.
Green Bay, one score.
NY Jets (5-8) at Miami (9-4)
This has a similar feel to Chicago-Cleveland – I’m not sure record is super relevant, as the Jets are playing hard, whereas Miami are coming off dropping a bad one against Tennessee. When it comes down to it, though, I have to ask myself if the Jets can repeat last week’s random offensive explosion, and if the Dolphins can play that badly again. My gut says the answer to both is no, so…
Miami, two scores plus.
Kansas City (8-5) at New England (3-10)
As bad as KC are, with a terrible WR core, aging TE, and a QB more focused on penalties, even when they’re correctly called, they can’t lose to Big Bill’s dying embers of a franchise.
P.S – it was offside. You never get calls against you. All the best. Shut up and get on with it.
KC, two scores plus.
NY Giants (5-8) at New Orleans (6-7)
Tommy Devito (or more accurately, Brian Daboll) has made this pick a lot harder. Whatever you think of the Giants QB or roster as a whole (and the answer for me is that both are pretty mediocre), one can’t really decry the coaching job Daboll is doing. He pulled voodoo last year to make them one of the NFCs best, and he’s turned around a team that was almost in outright mutiny a few weeks ago to make them look respectable going into this one. New Orleans are basically just thrashing about in nothingness, and while they did beat Carolina (ruining my upset pick for last week), they did make something of a meal of it for a while. I just fundamentally don’t believe in this New Orleans team, and I’m gonna back Devito to keep painting houses.
Giants, one score.
Houston (7-6) at Tennessee (5-8)
CJ Stroud is out. No brainer. It’s a shame for Houston, and Demeco Ryans in particular, who’s fast losing the Coach Of The Year inside track as they were looking pretty good two weeks ago, but QB matters in the NFL, regardless of what your system is. Hmm, I wonder my point could be…
Tennessee, one score.
San Francisco (10-3) at Arizona (3-10)
Oh, right.
Well, I have some misgivings about this one, particularly since about 8 or 9 49ers seem to be either definitely or likely to miss this one, including some big hitters on defense, whereas Arizona, even in losing, have played pretty close in every game, but fuck it, I’ll back Purdy in a shootout. MVPurdy.
San Francisco, one score.
Washington (4-9) at LA Rams (6-7)
Despite dropping a close one last week, I really like the Rams – they’re hitting into some form, and if they do sneak into the playoffs, they’ll be a tough out for anyone. This should be an easy one against a Washington team just desperate for the year to end.
Rams, two scores plus.
Dallas (10-3) at Buffalo (7-6)
Tough pick – tougher than I expected. Buffalo showed up, backs against the wall, last week, and came out with a big win – ditto Dallas, who destroyed the Eagles. I’m still not in love with Dallas, but reality bites, and they’re 10-3 right now, whereas Buffalo feel like they’ve got massive game after massive game on the schedule. This might be a game too far. Close one, but better team edges it.
Dallas, one score.
Baltimore (10-3) at Jacksonville (8-5)
Similar to the above, except Jacksonville don’t look too hot right now. Could be a fun game, particularly as the Ravens seem to like close games, including last week’s epic with the Rams. I will, as ever, side with the better team, and that’s the Ravens, who are probably Super Bowl favourites as it stands.
Baltimore, one score.
Philadelphia (10-3) at Seattle (6-7)
And finally…
This is actually quite hard to call, as Philly have had two bad results in a row, whereas Seattle, despite defeats, are still pretty competitive. Seattle needs this one, but then so do Philadelphia – it’s choosing which team you think will finally find its potential. I’ll back Philadelphia, but both of these teams are a real question mark. Tiebreaker goes to the better roster.
Philadelphia, one score.
As ever, agree or disagree, you can comment, tweet or email me. Enjoy the weekend’s games, it’ll soon be Christmas, and for some of us, it’ll soon be the playoffs! Take care.