RIP Matthew Perry.
Well, Week 8, already, which is absolutely insane to think about. Pretty much all the ‘unstoppable’ teams have been stopped, pretty much all the bad teams are now officially bad, and Halloween and the infantile love of spookiness by grown human beings is almost over. But how did it affect my picks?
Porter vs The World (49-49, 4-8 last week, 3 correct scores)
Ugh. I’m now at 49-49, which makes sense because I support the 49ers, and they’re one of many teams who let me down last week, including the Bills, Packers, Commanders, among others. I was also let down by the Raiders, but that’s fucking hilarious, so no harm, no foul. Ultimately, a bunch of close games went just the wrong way, but it’s a crap week, no excuses. Let’s see if I can do better this week.
Buffalo 24, Tampa Bay 18
I just really don’t like Buffalo right now – they should be far, far better than they are. They followed a really poor performance in losing to New England with a poor late win over a pretty dreadful Tampa Bay side. Nothing about this is convincing, but in October, a win’s a win. Tampa are just spinning their wheels in football purgatory, which is pretty much defined by having Baker Mayfield as your QB. Amusingly, they’ve a chance of winning the South, largely because the division is fucking awful.
Houston (3-3) at Carolina (0-6)
Stroud vs Young, and as much as it’d be so easy to judge ‘the best QB’ on this game, you have to take the fullness of their situations into account too. Houston has consistently played above its level under DeMeco Ryans, have an offensive identity, and a few pieces like Tank Dell to build around. Carolina have been scrappy, but seem to be grasping for something to tie their future to. I’m not convinced that Frank Reich was the best hire, but it’s hard to judge him with this roster. The misery continues, sorry Carolina.
Houston, one score.
LA Rams (3-4) at Dallas (4-2)
With the hype Dallas has got, you’d be forgiven for thinking they were having a much better year than the Rams, but I don’t think there’s a lot in this. The Rams are fun, but have been finding ways to lose of late, whereas Dallas are annoyingly effective, but also very good at beating up on worse teams. I can’t, unfortunately, see that changing here.
Dallas, one score.
Minnesota (3-4) at Green Bay (2-4)
Minnesota are alive, it would seem, although they shouldn’t have any hopes of the division, unless the Lions collapse. They got a good win last week off a very poor 49ers performance, but given the last rites were being read to this team and organisation, not least by me, three weeks ago, they deserve their moment. I expect them to keep the momentum alive against Green Bay, who have an inexperienced roster and a pretty terrible coach, which is an awful combination.
Minnesota, one score.
New Orleans (3-4) at Indianapolis (3-4)
Both these teams are mediocre for their own reasons – New Orleans has an overleveraged squad with a poor coach, and a pretty terrible QB, whereas Indianapolis are rebuilding with what looks like a decently exciting young roster, although they’re without their neophyte QB. Still, Gardner Minshew is probably better than this version of Derek Carr, and I’ll take Indy at home, because ultimately, I think they’re better and on a better trajectory. This thinking doesn’t always benefit me (see: Detroit last week) but my gut says the Colts are a better team and prove it.
Indy, one score.
New England (2-5) at Miami (5-2)
It would seem there’s a little life in Belichick yet, as he produced maybe one last coaching masterclass last week to once again hold the indian sign over his divisional foes in Buffalo. In Miami, he faces another team who he’s traditionally found a way to beat. Of course, he didn’t earlier in the season, but it was a lot closer than it ought to have been. Miami are a good, if confusing team with no defense, and if you’re pinning your hopes on Jalen Ramsey, then you’ve got bigger problems. Screw it, upset special: I’m taking New England to edge out their second divisional foe in as many weeks. Miami are due a letdown game, and I’m gonna stick my neck out and say this will be it.
New England, one score.
NY Jets (3-3) at NY Giants (2-5)
Find me a soul outside New York who wants to watch this abomination. The Jets, to be honest, are playing hard for their coach, despite not having a great deal of talent on offense, culminating in results like knocking off the Eagles – whereas the Giants are…well, their offensive line could’ve come straight out of The Replacements, and Keanu would probably be better than Daniel Jones or Tie-Rack Taylor, or whatever he wants to be called this week.
Jets, one score.
Jacksonville (5-2) at Pittsburgh (4-2)
Pittsburgh being 4-2 simply exists to irritate me, as they’ve somehow edged some genuinely terrible games against the Raiders, Ravens and Rams (so they like playing teams that start with R, apparently), despite being absolutely fucking dismal on offense. I’m actually going to pick them today though, as this feels like a classic Jacksonville game to lose – they’re such a good team with a propensity to play down to their opponent, and I can’t have nice things, or good teams to watch, so I’ll pick the throwback to flying wedge football that is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and we can have yet another year of mIKe tOmLIN IS onE Of The gReAtEst coAcHeS oF aLL tImE bullshiit.
Steelers, one score.
Atlanta (4-3) at Tennessee (2-4)
I’m at a loss who I think is worse here – an Atlanta team that misuses weapons like the Russian Army, or a Tennessee team that’s essentially got one big gun in Derrick Henry and a bunch of guys firing water pistols. Given that Tennessee is starting Will Levis, unless he’s a great deal better than I think he is, it feels like the Titans have shut down on the season, on winning, and possibly as a franchise. Atlanta wins in a game I couldn’t be paid to watch.
Atlanta, one score.
Philadelphia (6-1) at Washington (3-4)
Which of the following statements are true:
The NFL is institutionally racist
Eric Bieniemy is in fact not an offensive genius
That’s right, both. It continually irritates me having to talk about him and the Commanders because, for one, I can’t spell the guy’s name, and for two, the team he’s OCing sucks. Ron Rivera is playing out the string before he goes into a quiet retirement where he won’t have to spend half the next decade answering to sexual harrassers, while even accounting for the fact that he’s starting a guy who would be lucky to get a game in the XFL at QB, his offensive schemes have sucked, particularly last week in an absolutely horrendous divisional loss. Philly don’t convince me, but in this division, they really don’t have to, they just have to show up on time and get a competent pilot to fly them to road games, because the rest of the division is either paper tigers or poverty franchises. Easy win for Philly and the first blowout of the week.
Philadelphia, two scores plus.
Cleveland (4-2) at Seattle (4-2)
Cleveland are sneaky good, even without the super-handsy Deshaun Watson:
That defense is legitimate, and they’re generating enough offense even without giving half their salary cap to a sex offender. Seattle, meanwhile, keep picking up results, even if not always in convincing fashion. Geno Smith’s career rebirth is astonishing, though, and Pete Carroll, much as it makes me want to throw up bile until I’m nothing but a reincarnated lizard, deserves a ton of credit for what he’s doing with this team. It wasn’t that long ago I thought he was playing for retirement, but now it feels like he could coach forever – he’s found his energy again, and the team plays like it. I think this will be a good game, and were it in Cleveland, I’d take them, but I think the 12th man just gives the Seahawks the edge. I’ll be watching this closely.
Seattle, one score.
Baltimore (5-2) at Arizona (1-6)
We finally saw the team I think the Ravens are last week – they pulverised a team that arguably should’ve been on their level in Detroit, and Lamar Jackson looked like what he is and can consistently be – one of the best QBs in the NFL. Why it happened last week and not in the 6 games prior to that is anyone’s guess, but you’d expect them to keep the momentum rolling against Arizona, who continue to be fun to watch without really winning much. I’m expecting a fair few points in this one, but a relatively straightforward Baltimore win. Which probably means Baltimore don’t show up and somehow lose.
Baltimore, two scores plus.
Kansas City (6-1) at Denver (2-5)
Well, Denver did manage to fight for a win last week, but it’s fair to say they were playing a team that is about as bad, if not worse, than them in the Packers. Sorry, you can’t play them every week. This will be a rout.
Kansas, two scores plus.
Cincinnati (3-3) at San Francisco (5-2)
The narrative around the 49ers seems to be shifting after two poor games, and listening to most people, we’d be lucky to get a wildcard now. Never mind that our all-world left tackle is out (and probably misses today), our do-everything YAC monster is also out (missing today too), and our QB played half of last week with a concussion (great job, independent NFL neurologists), apparently this team is now bad and Joe Burrow is going to ‘shred’ us. Don’t take my word for it, take the word of the experts over at NFL.com. Not sure why we’re turning up to be honest.
Cincinnati can be an excellent team, but I think very little of their defense, and if there’s one team the 49ers d-line could have a bounceback game against, I’d wager it will be this one, with the Oakland A’s that protect Burrow on a weekly basis. Burrow keeps it close, largely because I expect Chase to have a good day against our…let’s call them ‘middling’…secondary, but I believe that even a brain damaged Brock Purdy gets this done, likely with a lot of help from Kittle and Aiyuk.
San Francisco, one score.
Chicago (2-5) at LA Chargers (2-4)
What I find interesting in this one is that, by record, the Chargers are almost as bad as Chicago, yet one coach is on the hotseat, constantly criticised, and their roster is torn apart by ‘experts’, whereas one is considered a good young team with a good quarterback that’s underperforming. On the surface I actually agree with it, but I do find the narratives interesting. Brandon Staley is, for some reason, bombproof in the national media, even as this team continues to fail to reach its potential. I like them to win here, just because Bagent is a nice fairytale, but the Bears are still poor, and unfortunately for those of us who like a laugh, he can’t play the Raiders every week. I fully expect them to keep this close, though, because it’s the Chargers, and this is not a pick I have huge confidence in.
Chargers, one score.
Las Vegas (3-4) at Detroit (5-2)
You can’t say much more about the Raiders than that, they seem utterly bereft of confidence, ideas and sense. Strangely, though, their record doesn’t really reflect either the above nor the stats – it’s hard to say, but it feels like they’ve benefitted from beating up some even worse teams than them, not unlike the Saints, for example. For Detroit, this is a game they absolutely must win if they want to be taken seriously – the mark of a good team is twofold – bouncing back from mistakes, but also beating the teams you are expected to beat. I’ll say they’re going to do it, and handily, but this is going to be a very interesting test of their skillset.
Detroit, two scores plus.
Enjoy!