I’m pushing an elephant up the stairs…
Here we go then, the NFL season is upon us once again, bringing with it the usual brand of pageantry, excitement and confusion it always does. I’ll try to be here for seventeen weeks (or eighteen, or whatever the NFL has decided the season will last this year), but you know, I have a busy schedule.
With that in mind, let’s dive into the great beyond that is the Week 1 predictions, where no one knows fuck all about anything or anyone, but will speak with complete certainty as to what’ll happen. Not least myself.
Detroit 21, Kansas City 20
Ooh, something we do know something about – two teams that have already played! Well, the narrative is set already for Kansas – Mahomes has ‘no help’ despite starting the Giants starting WRs from the previous two years as WR3 and WR4, while Chris Jones’ contract dispute looms as large as his waistline. I thought they did fine here, but were just bested by a team playing on the crest of a wave, with a great pass rush and a lot of momentum behind them. Yes, even lining up in the Mighty Ducks flying V couldn’t contain that Detroit pass rush, and they walked away with a deserved win. Maybe Detroit are what we thought they were?
Oh, side note, I’m seeing some Internet hilarity at the Lions’ reaction and celebration after winning – largely from fans of franchises that haven’t beaten the Chiefs since Obama was in the White House. Pipe down, work harder, and get some wins yourself.
Carolina at Atlanta
Christ, what a doozy to start with. Carolina’s best played players don’t even play for them, whereas Atlanta are the very definition of meh, the egg-white omelette of the NFL. They’re hitching their wagon to Desmond Ridder, which seems about as safe as flying in the Challenger to me. Regardless, they’ve too much for Carolina, I think. Bryce Young is gonna make you Carolinans very happy in the long term, but it’s a tough start trying to QB this team.
Atlanta, two scores plus.
Houston at Baltimore
I like DeMeco Ryans (although I thought the hype around his defense was ridiculous, and he may have been carried by some ridiculous talent) and possibly the combination of CJ Stroud and a Shanahan-based offense, coordinated by Bobby Slowik, can start lifting them out of their long national nightmare, but it won’t start here. Baltimore are a strong side, and I’m really intrigued to see what Todd Monken can do for that offense. A tough baptism (ironically, Jack Easterby intensifies) for the new blood in Houston, on the road against a team this good.
Baltimore, two scores plus.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Joe Burrow has gone from having his death predicted to a huge new contract in the space of about four weeks – a story befitting of Christ himself. If he wasn’t in Ohio, he’d probably be more popular than Jesus already. I really like Cinci, but I think they’ve lost some good pieces this offseason – it very much feels like they’re going to be an offensive-driven football team more than ever this season. Across the river (don’t write in if that’s wrong, the geography of Ohio isn’t ever going to be my special subject), the Browns fortunes feel entirely in the hands of Deshaun Watson (much like his penis in…never mind), which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it’s just an average roster that they’re hoping he can elevate. These divisional fights are always closer than expected, but I feel Cincinnati will have enough here.
Cincinnati, one score.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
I really like Jacksonville, and they largely kept the band together this offseason, so they’re still going to be a well-coached team with one of the best young QBs in football at the controls. Indy are trying to get there, with the Jeff Saturday experiment finally over, and an exciting athletic talent throwing the ball. They might get there (I have my doubts about Richardson) but they’re not there yet. Again, like a few of the rookie coaches, a tough baptism for Shane Steichen and his guys, although homefield should keep it close.
Jacksonville, one score.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Tampa have everything except a quarterback – the problem is, those are quite important. They’ll likely be in the game against a peculiar Minnesota outfit who have made some baffling offseason decisions, but there’s enough residual talent for Minnesota to get a win on the board here, especially at home.
Minnesota, one score.
Tennessee at New Orleans
Nice, the music cities go to war in Week 1! I think this might be an underrated game – Tennessee have a LOT to prove after last season, and Hopkins in particular is telling the world and anyone who’ll listen that he feels ‘disrespected’ and is going to ‘prove himself’, which might have some weight if he had any form of recent success and could run more than one route without breaking a bone in his body. Tennessee feel on the cusp of a drop-off, whereas New Orleans, terrible coaching aside, still have a pretty good roster, and it’ll be interesting to see if Derek Carr is actually as good as Raiders fans told us he was, until they wanted to get rid of him. Schrodinger’s QB, at once worth a first-rounder and a useless QB holding the team back, finally gets to work for a sane fanbase, and I’ve got him taking the W today.
New Orleans, one score.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Game of the week? Maybe. NFL royalty collides in a decidingly unroyal city in Pittsburgh. As a San Francisco fan, I’m a little nervous about this one – playing our o-line, particularly travelling turnstile Colton McKivitz, against TJ Watt feels like a way to turn Brock Purdy into the six-million dollar man. Luckily, we have got $170 million man Nick Bosa back in the fold, and that should help in what will hopefully be an ugly bar brawl of a game. They’re the kind of games you love when you win, and hate when you lose, and something tells me I’m going to hate this one. Losing to Kenny Pickett will probably put me on suicide watch.
Exactly, sounds like an Oakland A already.
Pittsburgh, one score.
Arizona at Washington
Ahahahaha. No analysis here. Arizona may be the worst team in the league. Even a team that’s coach forgot it’s now-starting QB existed should be able to beat them.
Washington, one score.
Green Bay at Chicago
Ooh, a ‘The Lions have made us irrelevant’ bowl in Week 1? Yeah! This is a tough pick actually, I have no idea what to make of Jordan Love, whereas Chicago may as well be running the single wing with their QB and receiver setup. I love Fields, but please, please, help the man. Get him some blocking and a consistent, hard-working receiver (it’s not Claypool). For the sake of an entertaining column, and without a four-sided coin to flip, I’ll pick Chicago. Go Bears.
Chicago, one score.
Las Vegas at Denver
Denver figured out that if you appoint a competent head coach, you have a better chance of looking vaguely useful on the football field. I love Sean Payton as a coach, and I think he’ll re-energise his guys this year and get Denver up challenging for the divisional title – they were shockingly less than the sum of their parts last year, and funny though it was, I don’t think I’ll get to laugh at Russell Wilson two years in a row.
Las Vegas….well, their second-best pass rusher is in open warfare with the GM, HC and CTE, which has all the elements of a hilarious year laughing at the Raiders again. They’re not bad on paper apart from in some spots, but the wheels are coming loose organisationally, even if they’re not quite off yet. Don’t fancy them here either.
Denver, two scores.
Miami at LA Chargers
The empty calories of the NFL collide – fun to watch, feel great, do absolutely nothing for you. Should be an entertaining game, as the weirdest nerd going takes charge of an increasingly all-star Miami team, while Justin Herbert shakes off a massive contract to continue to fall below expectations. Lots of points, lots of fun, it’ll mean nothing when either team actually has something to play for. But I’ll love watching it.
LA Chargers, one score.
Philadelphia at New England
This used to be a Super Bowl – now New England’s backup QB goes missing two days before the opening game. Belichick is having a long, painful farewell that might end up being sponsored by Dignitas, while the Eagles should keep it rolling with an easy win here. I’m not sure about their proclamations of a revenge tour, if only because it rarely ends well for teams that just lost the Super Bowl (cries in 2020 49ers), but they’ve more than enough to win handsomely here.
Philadelphia, two scores. Plus.
LA Rams at Seattle
The NFC West is going to be fucking awesome this year, minus the Cardinals, and we get a proper glimpse of it here with the first divisional matchup. I forsee plenty of scoring, a physical battle, and annoyingly, Seattle winning at home, as they always seem to. The division will be decided by these games this season, so they’ll all be must-watch in their own way. The Rams are something of an unknown still, but the lower expectations should help them surprise a few. Not enough to win at Quest, though.
Seattle, one score.
Dallas at NY Giants
I swear, the last time this game wasn’t in primetime, they played with leather helmets and sent scores in by telegraph. Honestly, I have no desire to see this game nor a particularly strong feel for who the better team is. I am intrigued to see if Brian Daboll can still magic up something incredible for the Giants, especially now he achieved the impossible and got Daniel Jones paid. Meanwhile, Dallas is the same as it ever was – a talented side with a mental block on reaching their potential, and an insane octogenarian in the GM chair. I’ll take New York, but it’s a push.
Giants, one score.
Buffalo at NY Jets
New York, meet reality. You’ve invested in a 39-year old Quarterback with insecurity issues, you have a head coach who’s proved nothing, and the rest of your roster verges from average to good, apart from your o-line, which is absolutely dismal. Can’t see how this is going to go wrong – get the parade ready.
Buffalo looks a bit more well rounded than last year, and is for me the better of the two sides. They need to hurry up though, their window is closing.
Buffalo, one score.