Happy (almost) thanksgiving, everyone! Let’s see how we’re getting on after last weeks surprisingly-entertaining slate of games.
Porter vs The World – 74-65 – 8-5 last week, 7 correct margins
Easily my best week in terms of choosing the margin of victory, although the natural combination of my conservativeness (small c, fuck the Tories) and a lot of close games really helped. I dropped surprising ones with Buffalo, Baltimore, and Atlanta all losing, whereas my lack of faith in CJ Stroud (who I love) and the 49ers (who I love and support) cost me two more potential wins. Not a bad record though after a rough start.
Right then…this week.
Baltimore 34, Cincinnati 20
Lots of controversy here, as Joe Burrow had more wrist problems than a 14 year old who’s just discovered xvideos, and Mark Andrews was lost for the rest of the season due to a so called ‘hip drop’ tackle. I had no idea what one of these was til Thursday, and I thought it was something to do with being a lyrical gangsta, to be honest.
If you’ll allow me to editorialise a second (you can’t really stop me, it’s a written piece), I’ve had a couple of thoughts this week. First off, ‘Another Sunny Day’ by Belle & Sebastian is a great song and absolutely beautiful.
Anyway, I’ve seen a lot of conjecture from Ravens fans that hip-drop tackles should now be banned as it caused them to lose one of their best players for the rest of the year. I’d first like to say, if I may – bollocks. The NFL is already almost impossible for defensive players – you can’t hit high, you can’t hit ‘defenceless’ (which seems to change with every week) players, and you have to bring QBs down with a strongly worded letter. If we continue to ban forms of tackling, where are defenders supposed to hit? It’s already a very small section of the body that’s ‘legal’ to hit – take ‘hip-drop’ tackles away, and the NFL is either going to become flag football or the Sarcastaball seen in South Park.
I’m no alpha male, and I don’t believe in the world going ‘soft’, but it does bother me when I keep hearing suggestions to make the game safer and safer every year. Newsflash, idiots: half the appeal of the NFL is the violence, the physicality, the athleticism. Take that away, and you’ve just got netball in pads.
Far more infuriating is ex-players sanctimonious caterwauling, particularly when it comes from someone like Bart Scott, who was no stranger to causing injury himself:
During the play in question, Scott pulled Bush to the ground and rolled over Bush’s lower legs as the two spun down.
https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/news/story?id=2644743
Bush sat on the field for several minutes and winced as he was
examined by trainers. He then limped to the locker room with help
from team staff.
“The media darling, aka the golden boy of the NFL, tried to take a cheap shot at me, so I told him I was going to put some extra on it,” Scott told the Sun. “He can do all those shakes he wants, but I wasn’t going anywhere. I put a little hot sauce on that ankle.”
I think what I’m trying to say is – don’t be a hypocrite, fuck off, and leave us to our enjoyment.
Anyway, game wise, a good win for Baltimore, and between the Bengals’ combined loss of the game and Joe Burrow, probably the last we see of them this season. They were fun to watch for all of three weeks there.
Moving on then – mercifully – to this week.
Dallas (6-3) at Carolina (1-8)
Not since Shaggy’s 1993 hit have so many people said ‘Oh Carolina’ in unison. Hard to see anything but a Dallas win, easily, here.
Meanwhile, Frank Reich has taken back playcalling in Carolina, which feels like a last-ditch desperate attempt to save his job – something that looks impossible at this point.
Dallas, two scores plus.
Pittsburgh (6-3) at Cleveland (6-3)
I’m at a bit of a loss as to how either of these teams is 6-3, and also with an outside shot of their division, especially with the Ravens’ injury issues. There’s no quarterback between them (literally, in Cleveland’s case, following Deshaun Watson being ruled out for the season), so I can only assume it’s defense all the way. This makes it a very hard game to pick, but one of the only nice things you can say about the Steelers’ QB situation is that it is settled and will have had time to practice, which is more, really, than Cleveland’s had all season. I’ll take Pittsburgh in yet another ugly one.
Pittsburgh, one score.
Chicago (3-7) at Detroit (7-2)
I keep waiting for Detroit to drop a game they’re expected to win, and every week, they don’t. They tried their best last week, making the Chargers look good for a while, but still pulled out the victory, while Jahmyr Gibbs seems to finally be out of witness protection and actually looks like every inch the weapon he was predicted to be. Chicago, meanwhile, get Justin Fields back this week. This will have no impact on the outcome, but it might at least make it slightly more interesting.
Detroit, two scores plus.
LA Chargers (4-6) at Green Bay (3-6)
An irrelevant game between two irrelevant sides, which probably means lots of points and surprising entertainment. I don’t really have a strong opinion on either side, bar the Chargers being the biggest waste of talent in the NFL, so I’ll say home team rules and take GB.
Green Bay, one score.
Arizona (2-8) at Houston (5-4)
I like both of these teams for different reasons – Arizona has ran an expansion-level roster to two surprising wins (although given they were over Dallas and Atlanta, two of the biggest paper tigers in league history, maybe not that surprising), while Houston is a sneaky bubble-playoff candidate being led by a staff coaching their asses off with a QB who looks like a potential new star in the NFL. I like both coaching staffs, but really, this has to be a game Houston wins – part of being a bubble team is acting like one, and beating the teams you should beat. If Ryans can get his defense to play better against scrambling QBs than he did in San Francisco, they should wrap this one up. I think Arizona will keep it close though, as they’ve largely done all year.
Houston, one score.
Tennessee (3-6) at Jacksonville (6-3)
Jacksonville suffered a surprise battering last week at the hands of the Niners, but this feels like the perfect game to rebound back in, against a poor Tennessee squad who are largely playing out the string at this point. I can’t shake a nagging feeling that Jacksonville aren’t quite as good as their record, which is why I expect this to be close, but ultimately they should be winning this one.
Jacksonville, one score.
Las Vegas (5-5) at Miami (6-3)
The Raiders being at .500 is one of the most baffling things in the NFL – they’ve got a bottom 10 team on both offense and defense. Still, they’ve beaten the teams in front of them the last two weeks, even if it has only been a Giants team on life support and a Jets team that’s heading for the same ward. Vegas’ 5 wins are over both New York teams, the Patriots, Green Bay, and Denver. They’re the literal definition of ‘you can only beat the crap in front of you’. This week they run into a Miami team that, statistically, should be better than 6-3, and worryingly, have only lost to other contenders (Buffalo – when they were one – Philadelphia and Kansas City). There’ll be time to worry about that in the future, though. A win for Miami, although possibly closer than you might think – Antonio Pierce, if nothing else, has got the boys playing hard for him.
Miami, one score.
NY Giants (2-8) at Washington (4-6)
OK, so we all knew that Daboll was pulling some magic tricks last year, but I didn’t realise he’d traded his soul and a witches curse for one good season from Daniel Jones. This team are flatlining rapidly, and more importantly, seem to be revolting (I certainly think that when I watch them play). Hard to see Washington losing here, they do sometimes play down to their opponent, and that defense is awful, but no one’s as bad as the Giants right now.
Washington, two scores plus.
Tampa Bay (4-5) at San Francisco (6-3)
This should actually be a closer game than records suggest. While I’m no fan of Mayfield nor Tampa’s offense in general, it can generate some noise and points, whereas Tampa’s defense has been good in pretty much every game. It’s an interesting 5-day stretch for the Niners, as two wins, at home today and on Thursday in Seattle, probably wraps up the division and, I would’ve thought, a high playoff seeding. This is the easier one of the two to win, but they need to do a professional job and get the job done. I never like picking my team, especially in what’s such an obvious trap game, but I think we’ll just get it done. Brock Purdy to me.
San Fran, one score.
NY Jets (4-5) at Buffalo (5-5)
When Rodgers went down in Week 1, I’d have lost a lot of money if you’d bet me these teams would be a game apart heading into Week 11. Buffalo has completely flatlined and started to get ‘bad Josh’, and has responded by firing Ken Dorsey, which may actually be slightly unfair, as they’ve the 3rd ranked offense in the country, but the 23rd ranked defense. It smacks a little of scapegoating, and perhaps it will fire up the Bills, who knows, but something needs to, as their window, once seemingly wide open, is shutting rapidly. I never know what to make of the Jets – they can ride that defense to another win, or that anaemic offense can cost them it. I’ll take Buffalo, but this is one of the tougher picks this week.
Buffalo, one score.
Seattle (6-3) at LA Rams (3-6)
If Seattle are as good as their record, this should be routine, but they’ve had a few wobbles against poor sides. It’s a strange one, as they’re not particularly outstandingly good at anything, but seem to find ways to win every week. I’d probably, on balance, back them to do the same here, but in a divisional game, it’ll be at the least, interesting. The Rams are the definition of a middling team this year – it’s almost like Jeff Fisher is back – and they’ll put up a fight, but I’ll take Seattle.
Seattle, one score.
Minnesota (6-4) at Denver (4-5)
Minnesota’s turnaround is almost as astonishing as their opponents’ this week – both teams were looking to be heading for absolute hell at the start of the season, but have rebounded to be at least respectable (in Denver’s case), and often entertaining (in Minnesota’s). Whether Josh Dobbs can keep it rolling here is ultimately what will decide things, but I have a sneaking feeling Denver pull another one out, off the back of Russell Wilson, who is quietly putting together a pretty decent season under Sean Payton.
Denver, one score.
Philadelphia (8-1) at Kansas City (7-2)
The kind of game primetime was actually invented for, and by far the hardest pick of the week. If you’re reading this, you know how good both teams are, but both have struggled at times this year to show their best. That said, they usually pull out wins anyway. Who would I take here? As with all tough picks, home advantage rules – I’ll take KC and Andy Reid to put a bit of hurting on his old employers, but in all honesty, anything other than a close game either way would be a huge shock.
Kansas, one score.
Alright, all the best, enjoy Week….
I thought that, since it’s Thanksgiving this week, I’d break the habit of a lifetime and pick the midweek games. Let’s see if they can be nice bonuses to my tally or a weight on my shoulders!
Green Bay at Detroit
I’m finally going to see Detroit win a Thanksgiving game! It’s hard to imagine them losing here, again, another game they should be winning, if they’re the team we all think they are.
Detroit, two scores plus.
Washington at Dallas
Dallas’s offense versus that poor Washington D feels like a mismatch. Easy one for Dallas, I think, although I hope Washington keep it close.
Dallas, one score.
San Francisco at Seattle
I think this might be a game too far for the Niners. The Seattle games are always close, and I’d expect a split 1-1 between them this season, and if Seattle’s going to win one, you’d think it would be at home, in primetime, in front of their shrieking piped-in crowd noise. Hopefully it’s a classic, as always, though.
Seattle, one score.