Happy 2022, everyone.
Hello! I think I’ve reported eligible just in time, let’s talk Week 17, shall we? But first, how’d I do last week – was I an Xbox Series X, or just a lump of coal?
Porter versus The World – 120-103 (9-6 last week, 4 correct margins)
How very Jeff Fisher of me. A very average week, not helped by Cincinnati, Denver, and Kansas City, to name a few, falling flat on their faces, while I missed on a couple of 50/50 picks where Atlanta and Jacksonville are concerned. Still, over the season, unless I get very few wins over the last two weeks, it’s not a bad record. So let’s dive into Week 17, and oh boy, we’ve got things to talk about already…
Cleveland 37, NY Jets 20
Not much to say here, a fairly routine win for a good Cleveland side against a Jets side that’s been dead since Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles went pop. Cleveland’s combination of that stifling defense versus Flacco’s miracle throws is giving off major Ravens 2012 vibes. They won’t be an easy out in the playoffs.
Dallas 20, Detroit 19
Hoo boy. Well, there’s the whole controversy about the end, and at the time of writing, it looks a pretty open-and-shut officiating mistake. I’ll save the conspiracies for the tinfoil hat brigade, but I’d also like to advance a thought – when you got a 2nd chance via penalties etc, why didn’t Dan Campbell just send it to overtime? I can fully understand going for it the first time, but three times brings in Einstein’s theory of insanity. Nonetheless, the Lions look to have been robbed like a suburban 7-11.
Let’s go for this week’s picks – without any inside information from the NFLRA.
Miami (11-4) at Baltimore (12-3)
Well, Baltimore must have established themselves as the best team in the NFL last week, not just the AFC, but this is probably the only team that promises to genuinely threaten them come playoff time, so this will be a fun playoff preview matchup, with any luck. Based on having seen both teams close up now, I’m taking Baltimore, with the proviso that they are due a let-down game, particularly after getting a number of lucky breaks during the 49ers game – every tipped ball seemingly somehow ending up in Baltimore hands, for instance. Ultimately, though, I still think they’re a better team, so Cranky tiebreakers apply, and they’ll win here.
Baltimore, one score.
New England (4-11) at Buffalo (9-6)
This shouldn’t be close, but then, neither should it have been against the Chargers for Buffalo. They’ll win here, though, and hopefully more convincingly, against a New England team who basically went home in October.
Buffalo, two scores plus.
Atlanta (7-8) at Chicago (6-9)
Oh god, who knows. Atlanta find a way to lose games they should win (although didn’t last week), whereas Chicago are actually not far off a reasonable record, given the teeth-gnashing and screaming surrounding the franchise from their online fanbase. I think I’ll take Chicago narrowly in this one, but there’s not really a surprising result here.
Chicago, one score.
Tennessee (5-10) at Houston (8-7)
CJ Stroud’s back, making this prediction much easier. It’s the time of the season where mediocre or worse teams like Tennessee put the cue on the rack and start looking to the offseason. I don’t see any way a fired-up Houston team on the playoff bubble finds a way to lose this one, especially given the coaching job Demeco Ryans is doing out there.
Houston, one score.
Las Vegas (7-8) at Indianapolis (8-7)
Tough call, both teams are capable of playing well, but usually haven’t on a consistent basis. The Raiders seem to be trying really hard to get Antonio Pierce the head coaching job, whereas Indianapolis have defied the loss of Anthony Richardson to be watchable (largely) all year. Both teams need this one, and it’s a push to call, so I’ll call the usual tiebreaker and say home advantage rules.
Indianapolis, one score.
Carolina (2-13) at Jacksonville (8-7)
Jacksonville is starting CJ Beathard, which can’t be good news – take it from a man who watched him for most of the 2017 season. I’ve picked Carolina a few times this season, and it’s mostly backfired (and ironically, I didn’t pick them two weeks ago, and they won that), so I’m going to double down here like a true addict and take them one last time. Go on Carolina.
Carolina, one score.
LA Rams (8-7) at NY Giants (5-10)
This should be over pretty quickly – while the Giants should be lauded for sticking to their task and not throwing the season away, and their defense is playing really well (making it even stranger when Wink Martindale inevitably gets fired at season’s end), but the Rams are the NFC’s hottest team right now, and I have a feeling they’ll run over this Giants team. Tommy Devito has, like many one-hit wonders, had his moment. Still, it was fun for a while, if not a social experiment.
Rams, two scores plus.
Arizona (3-12) at Philadelphia (11-4)
As bad as the Eagles are, this is another easy pick. No more words, I’m on a time limit.
Eagles, two scores plus.
New Orleans (7-8) at Tampa Bay (8-7)
Hard to call, but very, very vital – a division essentially stands on the line. I’d say a close game, but there’s one team ascending and one collapsing, making it a slightly easier pick than it seems. Tampa will move on, get a home playoff game, and then….who knows where?
Tampa, one score.
San Francisco (11-4) at Washington (4-11)
Me at 3am on Boxing Day morning, watching my team shit the bed.
San Francisco needs a bounceback game after ruining my Christmas, and fortunately, we’re playing a Washington team that’s long since given up on the season, with half its players out, and a guy they didn’t want to start at QB at QB. Surely even we can’t lose this one.
San Francisco, two scores plus.
Pittsburgh (8-7) at Seattle (8-7)
Another game with decent-size playoff implications, but easier to pick than most. Despite their sudden showing on Christmas, when Rudolph guided Pittsburgh’s slaying of Cincinnati and went down in history, Seattle’s just a better team all round. I’m sure it’ll be kept close, but Seattle wins for me.
Seattle, one score.