Hello hello! I don’t have much time, Santa’s rounding the bend, the chimney’s open, lets get to picking!
Porter versus The World (111-97, 8-7(!) last week, 3 correct margin)
Not bad, but probably goes better if I stop showing faith in Atlanta, and have more in Houston, for example. Surprise losses for the Cowboys and the Eagles also took me down a bit, but after 4-10 a week ago, a pretty welcome return to form. Can I unwrap some Christmas gifts this year and get myself more strikes in the positive column? First, lets talk Thursday…
LA Rams 30, New Orleans 22
As a 49ers aficionado, I’m getting worried about the Rams. They’re just catching fire, and will likely be an excellent dark horse in the playoffs. The vast majority of the reason why they suddenly look as good as they can be is their running game’s emergence, led by Kyren Williams. With Stafford still as good as he’s ever been, and a veteran team heating up, they’ll be a tough out for anyone in the playoffs. The same was never true of the Saints anyway, but this loss probably caps them out for the year. They’ve unfortunately got the combination of an above average roster but combined with a below average head coach. They’re spinning their wheels down in the big easy.
Cincinnati (8-6) at Pittsburgh (7-7)
Difficult pick, as both have strong moments of mediocrity, but Pittsburgh’s mediocre has become toxic lately. When your players don’t want to block because they might get hurt, your locker room, and possibly coaching tenure, is going the wrong way. Bengals pull this one out and continue to threaten a decent playoff run.
Cincinnati, one score.
Buffalo (8-6) at LA Chargers (5-9)
A much easier pick, as we’ve got two teams going opposite ways here – Buffalo, like LA above, are heating up rapidly, and honestly barely gave the Cowboys a look in last week. I expect more of the same here, as the Chargers are on their sun loungers, waiting to see who comes in to try and turn it around next year.
Buffalo, two scores plus.
Indianapolis (8-6) at Atlanta (6-8)
Atlanta might be the worst team that’s not going to get a high pick in the draft. On paper, they shouldn’t be, but Arthur Smith’s coaching is tantamount to one of the biggest possible crimes in the world. Indy, conversely, may be the worst team with a good record, but they’re an entertaining watch and should be good enough to keep it rolling.
Indy, one score.
Green Bay (6-8) at Carolina (2-12)
The one week I don’t back Carolina to pull off an upset, and one comes in, admittedly against a team almost as badly coached as they are in a horrendously low scoring game. They won’t keep it rolling here. Green Bay have basically set fire to their playoff chances, but they should get back on the horse here, even if it is now far too late.
Green Bay, two scores plus.
Cleveland (9-5) at Houston (8-6)
Difficult pick here – two teams capable of finding ways to win in difficult circumstances (in the Browns case, from a poorly constructed offensive roster, and in the Texans case, due to being mid-rebuild) colliding, with two people doing two of the best coaching jobs out there. With no Stroud, and the Browns defense, I have to take the Browns here. If Demeco pulls this one out, they should make him mayor.
Cleveland, one score.
Detroit (10-4) at Minnesota (7-7)
If the Lions hadn’t won last week, this would be a far harder pick. Given that they did, and in quite some style, and Minnesota is struggling for an offensive identity, I have to take momentum here and welcome Detroit to the playoffs for the first time since Abraham Lincoln picked up a playbill. Forza Detroit.
Detroit, one score.
Washington (4-10) at NY Jets (5-9)
Oof, from the penthouse to the outhouse. I guess I’ll take the Jets as they’re marginally better and certainly better coached, but this won’t be well-remembered.
Jets, one score.
Seattle (7-7) at Tennessee (5-9)
Seattle kept its playoff hopes alive with a nice win over the Eagles, and have actually been playing quite a bit better than their recent results suggest. Tennessee, much like New Orleans, are in some sort of bland nothingness. Seattle takes an edgy one.
Seattle, one score.
Jacksonville (8-6) at Tampa Bay (7-7)
Big game here – Jacksonville is losing its grip on its division, while Tampa is trying to strengthen its grip on its own. Jacksonville are an odd team, seemingly playing way below the sum of its parts, while Tampa are similar to the Rams, in the sense that they’re getting good at the right time. I’ll take Tampa in a close one, but this is definitely a push – and the winner can probably look forward to football in January.
Tampa, one score.
Arizona (3-11) at Chicago (5-9)
Chicago contrived to throw away a winning position AGAIN last week, and the sheer number of these must be concerning to the Bears hierarchy now, even if being close to winning so many games has likely protected some jobs out in Chicago. I’m actually going to back the upset here and take Arizona, who are far from perfect, hence their record, but seem to find a way to generate points and entertainment most weeks, regardless of their ability level.
Arizona, one score.
Dallas (10-4) at Miami (10-4)
A real titanic clash here, and a tough one to call, as both have had moments of mediocrity in winnable moments, and both have their issues. I’d say momentum is with Miami, so I’ll go with them, but I’m intrigued to see who wins this one, because it has pretty huge playoff implications, and we may find out who the best teams are. There’s another game like this too…
New England (3-11) at Denver (7-7)
It ain’t this one.
Denver, two scores plus.
Las Vegas (6-8) at Kansas City (9-5)
This is an interesting one – Vegas are a team of confusing conflicts, whereas KC have flattered to deceive pretty much all year. It’s a tight one, but best team rules comes into play, and KC will just get it back on track here.
KC, one score.
NY Giants (5-9) at Philadelphia (10-4)
Philly really needs a win, so they’re fortunate to be playing a horrendous football team – even with their struggles, its hard to see the Giants generating enough offense to win a game against a much better team. Is Philly back? No, but a good easy game always helps.
Philly, two scores plus.
Baltimore (11-3) at San Francisco (11-3)
And now, the end is near….
This is probably one of the most titanic regular season clashes in history, up there with Miami-Chicago in 85, Giants-Patriots in 2008, or even Steelers-49ers in 1984. Will we really know who the better team is after this? It’s hard to say. The Niners have a few injuries on the d-line (Armstead out will be huge, for example) – whereas the Ravens have suffered attrition all year. Ultimately, it comes down to:
- San Francisco’s discipline vs the run, particularly Lamar Jackson (scrambling QBs have caused them problems before)
- Baltimore vs the pass (will Brock Purdy continue to system QB the NFL?)
- Special Teams – the 49ers main returner, Ray Ray McCloud, continues to miss time, and we know that can affect games, especially against a good Ravens unit.
Honestly, it should be a classic. I’m seeing the Niners are at 5.5 point favourites for this game, but with their injuries along the d-line and poor run D last week, I’m taking the Ravens to strangle the life out of a close one.
Baltimore, one score.
Merry Christmas! Thank you for all your support this year. If you read and enjoy, or you read and hate it, please let me know via comment, tweet or email.