Porter versus The World – 130-107 (10-4 last week, 3 correct margins)

Bad week for the margins, but an excellent week for the picks, giving me a 0.548 percentage on the year, right above Jeff Fisher in NFL terms, but just below Chuck Knox. Can I drag it higher this week, or lower? Let’s find out.

Pittsburgh (9-7) at Baltimore (13-3)

With Baltimore resting half their starters, this unfortunately looks like a Pittsburgh win. Fortunately for the rest of the league, that ensures another year of Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh, so nothing to worry about for the foreseeable future.

Steelers, one score.

Houston (9-7) at Indianapolis (9-7)

Big playoff implications here, and I like both teams – Indy have been sneaky good all season, and are a fun watch as well, whereas if Houston make the playoffs, Demeco Ryans is a strong contender for coach of the year. It’s astounding where Houston are now compared to last year, and a strong pacifier for the likes of Carolina and Washington, who look lost at sea right now. It can happen to your franchise – if you get the right people in the right positions. So, who wins? That’s more difficult. I’ll take the team I like the most here, and back Houston to crash into the playoffs.

Houston, one score.

Atlanta (7-9) at New Orleans (8-8)

Big playoff implications here, and I hate both teams – New Orleans have been sneaky bad all season, and are a shit watch as well, whereas if Atlanta make the playoffs, Arthur Smith is a strong contender for worst coach to ever coach in a playoff game.

Hmm. I don’t actually think this game will matter, as Tampa beat Carolina (spoilers), but I’ll take New Orleans for being slightly less shit. Fire Arthur Smith – that team’s a head coach away from being good.

New Orleans, one score.

Cleveland (11-5) at Cincinnati (8-8)

Cleveland are resting a lot of starters, including everyone’s favourite NFL redemption story, Joe Flacco, so there’s only one winner here – basically, because if DTR could get it done, Flacco wouldn’t be there in the first place. A tough year for a good Cincinnati team, but they’ll be back, and with Joe Burrow, having ended on a reasonable high.

Cincinnati, one score.

Jacksonville (9-7) at Tennessee (5-11)

I could see Jacksonville finding a way to lose here, as they’ve been desperately poor lately, even in winning – but with the rumours swirling of a parting in Tennessee, I think they’ll just about do enough. As for Tennessee, Vrabel is a decent coach, but something clearly hasn’t worked the last two seasons, as he currently sits at 11-21 with one game to go. Twitter chatter of getting a first round pick for him just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

Jacksonville, one score.

Minnesota (7-9) at Detroit (11-5)

Minnesota need the win, whereas the Lions have the deckchairs largely out, unable to lift their seeding given likely wins for Philadelphia and Dallas (more spoilers!). However, I doubt Dan Campbell lets them have a week off, so I’ll take them to win, because Minnesota are pretty much pushing uphill as they have been all season. Big questions are heading their way in the offseason, especially at Quarterback.

Detroit, one score.

NY Jets (6-10) at New England (4-12)

Meh. Which team is less bad? Probably the Jets. Check back in next season for the Aaron Rodgers show, assuming he hasn’t been sued, imprisoned, or stabbed for calling someone a nonce with no evidence whatsoever. The man’s a fucking idiot, but the Jets had better be hoping he’s still a good Quarterback.

Jets, two scores plus.

Tampa Bay (8-8) at Carolina (2-14)

I’m not talking about Carolina any more, having backed them again last week to no end. Tampa wins, easy, and somehow gets a home playoff game.

Tampa, two scores plus.

Chicago (7-9) at Green Bay (8-8)

I’ve got Chicago here – I think they’re on a bit of a roll. It seems odd that, for all the caterwauling early in the year, the Bears were basically a couple of different results away from the playoffs. Are they trending upwards? It’s possible…

Green Bay certainly will trend upwards, I believe, in the next few seasons, but this one’s been a tough one, battling an experience gap at exactly the wrong time (as Detroit improved massively). Nonetheless, it should stand them in good stead for future seasons.

Chicago, one score.

Kansas City (10-6) at LA Chargers (5-11)

KC are resting Mahomes, but in all honesty, they could start Taylor Swift at QB and beat the Chargers. Next.

KC, two scores plus.

Philadelphia (11-5) at NY Giants (5-11)

Philly should win this, but then they should’ve won last week, and in several weeks this season, so we do have to consider that…

The Giants have had nothing to play for since November, and face a big offseason of tough decisions ahead. Some weapons for the QB – whoever that may be, but you’d expect it to be Daniel Jones – should be high on the list.

Philadelphia, two scores plus.

Dallas (11-5) at Washington (4-12)

Dallas wins, and continues to buff their record by beating shite. Next.

Dallas, two scores plus.

Denver (8-8) at Las Vegas (7-9)

Not much riding on this game playoff wise, but I fully expect that Denver is going to have a bloodbath of an offseason, so they’ll probably want to go into it with a win, especially over a division rival. The intrigue in Vegas is if one more win gets Antonio Pierce the job, as Jim Harbaugh rumours swirl…

I’ll take Vegas, as it’s a close game and they’re at home. A big offseason ahead for both teams, but probably bigger for Vegas, who have to get the decisions right this time around.

Vegas, one score.

LA Rams (9-7) at San Francisco (12-4)

This is the calmest I’ll be watching a 49ers game in a long time, with a first round bye locked up, several key players resting, and no good or bad news riding on the result. The fact we’re getting Darnold v Wentz is just a beautiful treat for anyone who loves broken toys. I’ll take my boys, as their depth is better, but honestly, this will just be fun to watch to see which no-names show up on film.

San Francisco, one score.

Seattle (8-8) at Arizona (4-12)

The Cardinals have beaten the Cowboys, Falcons, Steelers and Eagles this year.

What a strange football team.

It’s hard not to have optimism for the future in Arizona, they’ve been coached above their talent level for sure, and have some nice wins to show for it. I have to take Seattle, though, as they need the win a lot more. Seattle won’t be an easy team to beat in the playoffs, but conversely, it’s difficult to know which version of them turns up week-to-week. They’ll get the job done here, and probably easily, after a little back and forth.

Seattle, two scores plus.

Buffalo (10-6) at Miami (11-5)

This will be an amazing game, I can’t wait for this. It’s hard to believe Miami have let themselves fall back far enough to be in a 50/50 game for the division, but here we are. Meanwhile, Buffalo could actually drop out of the playoffs entirely if they lose, or be the #2 seed if they win! It’s an absolutely wild set of variances, and I’m not entirely sure the game won’t be the same. I’m going to back the hot hand, which is Buffalo, which should please those in upstate New York, but also those in Miami, as they usually fall on their arses whenever I pick them.

Buffalo, one score.

That’s a wrap on the regular season! Thank you for all your support this year – I never saw myself doing every week of picks, but as I hit publish, we’ve achieved it! If you read and enjoy, or you read and hate it, please let me know via comment, tweet or email.

Porter versus The World (111-97, 8-7(!) last week, 3 correct margin)

Not bad, but probably goes better if I stop showing faith in Atlanta, and have more in Houston, for example. Surprise losses for the Cowboys and the Eagles also took me down a bit, but after 4-10 a week ago, a pretty welcome return to form. Can I unwrap some Christmas gifts this year and get myself more strikes in the positive column? First, lets talk Thursday…

LA Rams 30, New Orleans 22

As a 49ers aficionado, I’m getting worried about the Rams. They’re just catching fire, and will likely be an excellent dark horse in the playoffs. The vast majority of the reason why they suddenly look as good as they can be is their running game’s emergence, led by Kyren Williams. With Stafford still as good as he’s ever been, and a veteran team heating up, they’ll be a tough out for anyone in the playoffs. The same was never true of the Saints anyway, but this loss probably caps them out for the year. They’ve unfortunately got the combination of an above average roster but combined with a below average head coach. They’re spinning their wheels down in the big easy.

Cincinnati (8-6) at Pittsburgh (7-7)

Difficult pick, as both have strong moments of mediocrity, but Pittsburgh’s mediocre has become toxic lately. When your players don’t want to block because they might get hurt, your locker room, and possibly coaching tenure, is going the wrong way. Bengals pull this one out and continue to threaten a decent playoff run.

Cincinnati, one score.

Buffalo (8-6) at LA Chargers (5-9)

A much easier pick, as we’ve got two teams going opposite ways here – Buffalo, like LA above, are heating up rapidly, and honestly barely gave the Cowboys a look in last week. I expect more of the same here, as the Chargers are on their sun loungers, waiting to see who comes in to try and turn it around next year.

Buffalo, two scores plus.

Indianapolis (8-6) at Atlanta (6-8)

Atlanta might be the worst team that’s not going to get a high pick in the draft. On paper, they shouldn’t be, but Arthur Smith’s coaching is tantamount to one of the biggest possible crimes in the world. Indy, conversely, may be the worst team with a good record, but they’re an entertaining watch and should be good enough to keep it rolling.

Indy, one score.

Green Bay (6-8) at Carolina (2-12)

The one week I don’t back Carolina to pull off an upset, and one comes in, admittedly against a team almost as badly coached as they are in a horrendously low scoring game. They won’t keep it rolling here. Green Bay have basically set fire to their playoff chances, but they should get back on the horse here, even if it is now far too late.

Green Bay, two scores plus.

Cleveland (9-5) at Houston (8-6)

Difficult pick here – two teams capable of finding ways to win in difficult circumstances (in the Browns case, from a poorly constructed offensive roster, and in the Texans case, due to being mid-rebuild) colliding, with two people doing two of the best coaching jobs out there. With no Stroud, and the Browns defense, I have to take the Browns here. If Demeco pulls this one out, they should make him mayor.

Cleveland, one score.

Detroit (10-4) at Minnesota (7-7)

If the Lions hadn’t won last week, this would be a far harder pick. Given that they did, and in quite some style, and Minnesota is struggling for an offensive identity, I have to take momentum here and welcome Detroit to the playoffs for the first time since Abraham Lincoln picked up a playbill. Forza Detroit.

Detroit, one score.

Washington (4-10) at NY Jets (5-9)

Oof, from the penthouse to the outhouse. I guess I’ll take the Jets as they’re marginally better and certainly better coached, but this won’t be well-remembered.

Jets, one score.

Seattle (7-7) at Tennessee (5-9)

Seattle kept its playoff hopes alive with a nice win over the Eagles, and have actually been playing quite a bit better than their recent results suggest. Tennessee, much like New Orleans, are in some sort of bland nothingness. Seattle takes an edgy one.

Seattle, one score.

Jacksonville (8-6) at Tampa Bay (7-7)

Big game here – Jacksonville is losing its grip on its division, while Tampa is trying to strengthen its grip on its own. Jacksonville are an odd team, seemingly playing way below the sum of its parts, while Tampa are similar to the Rams, in the sense that they’re getting good at the right time. I’ll take Tampa in a close one, but this is definitely a push – and the winner can probably look forward to football in January.

Tampa, one score.

Arizona (3-11) at Chicago (5-9)

Chicago contrived to throw away a winning position AGAIN last week, and the sheer number of these must be concerning to the Bears hierarchy now, even if being close to winning so many games has likely protected some jobs out in Chicago. I’m actually going to back the upset here and take Arizona, who are far from perfect, hence their record, but seem to find a way to generate points and entertainment most weeks, regardless of their ability level.

Arizona, one score.

Dallas (10-4) at Miami (10-4)

A real titanic clash here, and a tough one to call, as both have had moments of mediocrity in winnable moments, and both have their issues. I’d say momentum is with Miami, so I’ll go with them, but I’m intrigued to see who wins this one, because it has pretty huge playoff implications, and we may find out who the best teams are. There’s another game like this too…

New England (3-11) at Denver (7-7)

It ain’t this one.

Denver, two scores plus.

Las Vegas (6-8) at Kansas City (9-5)

This is an interesting one – Vegas are a team of confusing conflicts, whereas KC have flattered to deceive pretty much all year. It’s a tight one, but best team rules comes into play, and KC will just get it back on track here.

KC, one score.

NY Giants (5-9) at Philadelphia (10-4)

Philly really needs a win, so they’re fortunate to be playing a horrendous football team – even with their struggles, its hard to see the Giants generating enough offense to win a game against a much better team. Is Philly back? No, but a good easy game always helps.

Philly, two scores plus.

Baltimore (11-3) at San Francisco (11-3)

And now, the end is near….

This is probably one of the most titanic regular season clashes in history, up there with Miami-Chicago in 85, Giants-Patriots in 2008, or even Steelers-49ers in 1984. Will we really know who the better team is after this? It’s hard to say. The Niners have a few injuries on the d-line (Armstead out will be huge, for example) – whereas the Ravens have suffered attrition all year. Ultimately, it comes down to:

• San Francisco’s discipline vs the run, particularly Lamar Jackson (scrambling QBs have caused them problems before)
• Baltimore vs the pass (will Brock Purdy continue to system QB the NFL?)
• Special Teams – the 49ers main returner, Ray Ray McCloud, continues to miss time, and we know that can affect games, especially against a good Ravens unit.

Honestly, it should be a classic. I’m seeing the Niners are at 5.5 point favourites for this game, but with their injuries along the d-line and poor run D last week, I’m taking the Ravens to strangle the life out of a close one.

Baltimore, one score.

Merry Christmas! Thank you for all your support this year. If you read and enjoy, or you read and hate it, please let me know via comment, tweet or email.

How is everyone? Looking forward to Christmas? I think I am, but first, let’s see how bad last week’s picks tanked my record. Without looking at any evidence, I’m guessing…bad.

Porter versus The World (103-90, 4-10(!) last week, 1 correct margin)

Easily, EASILY my worst week in a while. In fairness, I think you could call Detroit, Green Bay, and Miami’s losses pretty big upsets, but some just were inexcusable (why did I back Carolina?!). In others, the law of averages just evened out and I was on the wrong end of the score in some close (KC-Buffalo, Jacksonville-Cleveland) and absolutely dreadful (Raiders-Vikings) games. Hopefully I can bounce back this week. However, let’s talk Thursday first…

Las Vegas 63, LA Chargers 21
Well, our long national nightmare, and particularly Justin Herbert’s, is finally over, as Brandon Staley, the worst coach in the NFL, the darling of the analytics, but a failure to anyone who, you know, actually watches football, is gone, and he’s took one of the worst GMs in football with him too. Hallelujah. Those jobs will be popular ones in the offseason, because the roster’s an interesting one, and they certainly have a QB, as anyone who didn’t believe in Justin Herbert’s talent got to see exactly what this team looks like without him.

Raiders? Good win, a team playing hard for the interim coach. I’m not sure I’d give him the job, but it’s a fuck of a lot better than bringing Jon Gruden back. My advice to Raiders fans is, if Davis brings Gruden back, sell up and try and start a team back in Oakland. It’s over.

Minnesota (7-6) at Cincinnati (7-6)
One 7-6 here is a lot better than the others – I’ve been super impressed with Cincinnati post-Burrow injury, whereas the brief signs of life under Josh Dobbs for Minnesota have long since been extinguished. I’ll back the Bengals to keep it rolling here.

Cincinnati, one score.

Pittsburgh (7-6) at Indianapolis (7-6)

One 7-6 here is a lot better than the oth…

Pittsburgh are flatlining, Indy were awful last week….this is a tough one. With the flux Pittsburgh are in (and the rumours around Tomlin’s future), I think I’ll take Indy, but I think this will be pretty ugly.

Indy, one score.

Denver (7-6) at Detroit (9-4)

God, this would’ve been a no brainer as recently as a month ago – now it’s one of the harder picks this week. Who are the real Lions? The team that looked like one of the best in the NFL up to Thanksgiving, or the poor team since? Who are the real Broncos? The team that looked like one of the worst of all time up to Thanksgiving, or the good team since? Of the two, I think the Broncos are ascending – they’re certainly not a team I’d want to face in the playoffs – and I’ll back them to take this. The only way this doesn’t happen is if the Lions, backs against the wall, suddenly find themselves again. Should be an intriguing, and close, one.

Denver, one score.

Atlanta (6-7) at Carolina (1-12)

I’m not picking Carolina again, you’ve let me down once too often. Atlanta are dreadful, but surely not dreadful enough to lose here.

Atlanta, two scores plus.

Chicago (5-8) at Cleveland (8-5)

This is another hard call, and a great example of how records mean less later in the season sometimes – Cleveland are up and down, particularly on offense, whereas Chicago seem to have saved Matt Eberflus’s job (don’t tell me that’s spelt wrong, I’m not looking it up) by playing pretty hard for him the last few weeks. Post-Josh Sweat, that defense seems to be on the way up, and when you look after Justin Fields, he reveals himself to be not just competent, but pretty damn talented. Really tough call, but my instinct is the Bears rally comes to an end this week, only because Cleveland’s on the playoff bubble and needs it just that little bit more. Interesting game to watch.

Cleveland, one score.

Tampa Bay (6-7) at Green Bay (6-7)

Tough call, as I don’t really like either team for different reasons – Green Bay’s inexperience showed in a dreadful loss last week to a pasta chef, whereas Tampa force me to not trust their offense almost every week. Usual Cranky rules apply here – when unsure, take the home team.

Green Bay, one score.

NY Jets (5-8) at Miami (9-4)

This has a similar feel to Chicago-Cleveland – I’m not sure record is super relevant, as the Jets are playing hard, whereas Miami are coming off dropping a bad one against Tennessee. When it comes down to it, though, I have to ask myself if the Jets can repeat last week’s random offensive explosion, and if the Dolphins can play that badly again. My gut says the answer to both is no, so…

Miami, two scores plus.

Kansas City (8-5) at New England (3-10)

As bad as KC are, with a terrible WR core, aging TE, and a QB more focused on penalties, even when they’re correctly called, they can’t lose to Big Bill’s dying embers of a franchise.

P.S – it was offside. You never get calls against you. All the best. Shut up and get on with it.

KC, two scores plus.

NY Giants (5-8) at New Orleans (6-7)

Tommy Devito (or more accurately, Brian Daboll) has made this pick a lot harder. Whatever you think of the Giants QB or roster as a whole (and the answer for me is that both are pretty mediocre), one can’t really decry the coaching job Daboll is doing. He pulled voodoo last year to make them one of the NFCs best, and he’s turned around a team that was almost in outright mutiny a few weeks ago to make them look respectable going into this one. New Orleans are basically just thrashing about in nothingness, and while they did beat Carolina (ruining my upset pick for last week), they did make something of a meal of it for a while. I just fundamentally don’t believe in this New Orleans team, and I’m gonna back Devito to keep painting houses.

Giants, one score.

Houston (7-6) at Tennessee (5-8)

CJ Stroud is out. No brainer. It’s a shame for Houston, and Demeco Ryans in particular, who’s fast losing the Coach Of The Year inside track as they were looking pretty good two weeks ago, but QB matters in the NFL, regardless of what your system is. Hmm, I wonder my point could be…

Tennessee, one score.

San Francisco (10-3) at Arizona (3-10)

Oh, right.

Well, I have some misgivings about this one, particularly since about 8 or 9 49ers seem to be either definitely or likely to miss this one, including some big hitters on defense, whereas Arizona, even in losing, have played pretty close in every game, but fuck it, I’ll back Purdy in a shootout. MVPurdy.

San Francisco, one score.

Washington (4-9) at LA Rams (6-7)

Despite dropping a close one last week, I really like the Rams – they’re hitting into some form, and if they do sneak into the playoffs, they’ll be a tough out for anyone. This should be an easy one against a Washington team just desperate for the year to end.

Rams, two scores plus.

Dallas (10-3) at Buffalo (7-6)

Tough pick – tougher than I expected. Buffalo showed up, backs against the wall, last week, and came out with a big win – ditto Dallas, who destroyed the Eagles. I’m still not in love with Dallas, but reality bites, and they’re 10-3 right now, whereas Buffalo feel like they’ve got massive game after massive game on the schedule. This might be a game too far. Close one, but better team edges it.

Dallas, one score.

Baltimore (10-3) at Jacksonville (8-5)

Similar to the above, except Jacksonville don’t look too hot right now. Could be a fun game, particularly as the Ravens seem to like close games, including last week’s epic with the Rams. I will, as ever, side with the better team, and that’s the Ravens, who are probably Super Bowl favourites as it stands.

Baltimore, one score.

Philadelphia (10-3) at Seattle (6-7)

And finally…

This is actually quite hard to call, as Philly have had two bad results in a row, whereas Seattle, despite defeats, are still pretty competitive. Seattle needs this one, but then so do Philadelphia – it’s choosing which team you think will finally find its potential. I’ll back Philadelphia, but both of these teams are a real question mark. Tiebreaker goes to the better roster.

Philadelphia, one score.

As ever, agree or disagree, you can comment, tweet or email me. Enjoy the weekend’s games, it’ll soon be Christmas, and for some of us, it’ll soon be the playoffs! Take care.

Well, here we are, it’s almost Christmas, but more importantly, it’s almost the playoffs! Would my picks be heading for playoff town, or the first pick in the draft? Let’s find out with a quick look at last week.

Porter vs The World – 99-80 (8-4 last week, 3 correct margins)

Some missed margins last week, largely down to not trusting the Rams or my own side, the 49ers, enough, but a pretty good week for the picks overall. The major misses were Pittsburgh, Houston (who I normally trust) and Kansas City, whereas Jacksonville had a strange MNF game and handed me the 4th loss. Also, the Chargers-Pats may just be the worst NFL game of all time.

Right, onto this week.

New England 21, Pittsburgh 18

Oof. That seat in Pittsburgh suddenly got hotter than the inner core of a steel smelter following two baffling losses in a row. Yep, famously-loyal Pittsburgh are apparently considering dispensing with Mike Tomlin at the end of the season. Is that fair? I’ll examine this in more detail in a bonus article this week hopefully, but to boil it down to the nuts and bolts of the argument – I think the criticism is fair, and I’m often a huge critic of Tomlin weekly in this column, but I’m not sure if this year is the year I want to be finding a new head coach. As for New England…I dunno. Bailey Zappe gave you a happy moment. Enjoy. I have no idea what happens next there.

Tampa Bay (5-7) at Atlanta (6-6)

Ugh. This is a hard game to call, and not in the ‘both these teams are good’ category. Tampa tried to choke away a victory over Carolina of all teams last week, whereas Atlanta are probably still the worst coached team in the league. As they come head to head, I’m taking the worse team on paper here, as I think they’ve played at a high level more consistently all season.

Tampa, one score.

Detroit (9-3) at Chicago (4-8)

Detroit, never knowingly dull, made a routine week last week look difficult, and are likely to do the same here against a Bears team which has, surprisingly, played above it’s record quite consistently. Once again, a must-have for Detroit, who largely play up to their potential when they have to. As long as they don’t look ‘poopy-faced’ on the sideline.

Detroit, one score.

Indianapolis (7-5) at Cincinnati (6-6)

Indy took care of business – eventually – last week, and are one of many potential teams on the bubble, along with their division-mates Jacksonville, who lost to this Cincinnati team last week. A clash of two mediocre teams, but with possible playoff implications. Interesting. It basically comes down to which offense fires, and both have had their moments this year, but I’ll take a third straight(!) road win in these predictions and go with a surprisingly resilient Indy side.

Indy, one score.

Jacksonville (8-4) at Cleveland (7-5)

Jacksonville suffered a bizarre reverse to Cincinnati, although at Cranky press time, Trevor Lawrence is expected to play, which should help. Cleveland seem to be falling to earth a little, which is understandable as they don’t really have a quarterback currently. If only they’d kept, uh…*checks notes* Josh…Dobbs?

Anyway, I’m taking Jacksonville to bounce back, but it’s a close one that could go either way.

Jacksonville, one score.

Carolina (1-11) at New Orleans (5-7)

Carr starting, coming off a concussion, against the worst (by record, if not vibes) team in the league? My upset senses are tingling, and once again, I’m going to listen to them. If Carolina can just remember to play the full game, they might just get a result here.

Carolina, one score.

Houston (7-5) at NY Jets (4-8)

I didn’t trust Houston last week, and it cost me. It’s hard not to take them here in a situation where they’re playing a team who’s starting QB doesn’t even want to play for them. Regardless, it’s the kind of game Houston has to win to be taken seriously, they’re on the bubble, but genuine good teams win these games. The Jets will probably let their defense keep them in the game, but it’s all about getting the job done at this stage of the year. Over to you, CJ.

Houston, one score.

LA Rams (6-6) at Baltimore (9-3)

My hunch on the Rams last week was correct, and they’re quite dangerously playing themselves into some form, with a very real chance of a wildcard in the NFC (due largely to the amount of teams at or around their record). Unfortunately, this week, they face the class of the NFL, and off a week’s rest no less. They’re not going to help themselves here, but shouldn’t get too dispirited – not many teams can hang with Baltimore if they’re at their best.

Baltimore, two scores plus.

Minnesota (6-6) at Las Vegas (5-7)

That’s the first home team I’ve picked this week, and I’m going to follow it with a second here. I don’t think there’s much between these teams, but I think Vegas are playing better(!) at the moment. I’ll back them to edge it here, and keep Antonio Pierce’s name swirling in contention to become ringmaster of that particular circus.

Vegas, one score.

Seattle (6-6) at San Francisco (9-3)

This feels like a classic San Francisco letdown game – off a huge win, home rivalry game (whatever state both teams are in, the Seattle games are usually close), with a few injuries (Armstead and a few others ruled out). Thankfully, we may have to face Drew Lock, so it’s not all bad. I hate picking games like this, especially when I feel an upset looming, but I’ll back my boys, largely because last week’s win was our best performance in my 18 years of supporting them. Close game, though.

San Francisco, one score.

Buffalo (6-6) at Kansas City (8-4)

Hot Sauce versus Barbecue, Allen versus Mahomes, and mediocrity versus…other mediocrity? It seems harsh to call KC mediocre, but they keep losing games they should be winning, and even some of the wins have been closer than they ought to have been. It is worth remembering they pretty much did the exact same thing last year, and got hot in time to….erm…win the Super Bowl.

Anyway, I think they win here. Buffalo have flattered to deceive all season, and Sean McDermott is probably more focussed on finding another terrorist attack to motivate his team. Joking aside, I largely think that Kansas City is a better team, and, backs against the wall, I think they’ll prove it.

Kansas City, one score.

Denver (6-6) at LA Chargers (5-7)

The Chargers won the worst game in NFL history last week, but let’s not lose our sense of perspective – they’re a terribly coached team, lacking severely in direction. Denver, meanwhile, lost after a good run to a good Houston team. If they’re serious about being a playoff bubble team, they need a win here, and I feel they’ll get it.

Denver, one score.

Philadelphia (10-2) at Dallas (9-3)

Ah, a clash of the two ‘the Niners blew us out but but but excuse excuse that’s the real quiz’ titans. Who wins? It’s a difficult call – Philly’s fatigue and general vulnerabilities showed last week, finally, whereas Dallas have largely roared back from disappointments to have a pretty good year. The winner will take divisional bragging rights and better playoff positioning, while a Dallas win helps the 49ers too.

It’s a tough, tough, pick, but I’ll take a smarting Eagles team. I’m just not entirely convinced by Dallas in games against similar level teams.

Philadelphia, one score.

Tennessee (4-8) at Miami (9-3)

The one-liner pick of the week, as unless Miami decide not to show up, this is about as easy as it gets.

Miami, two scores plus.

Green Bay (6-6) at NY Giants (4-8)

The Giants, for some reason, are in primetime, again, against a Green Bay team that seems to be getting better all the time. I still think it’s a little early for this roster, but Jordan Love showing progression and talent, along with his extremely inexperienced receiver core, makes them a potentially painful and difficult out for the rest of the year. They ought to easily handle a terrible Giants team.

Green Bay, two scores plus.

As ever, agree or disagree, you can comment, tweet or email me. Enjoy the weekend’s games, there’s not many left!

Hello again! Will Week 13 be unlucky or good for me? Let’s find out, but not before we find out just how bad last week was…

Porter vs The World – 91-76 (7-5 last week, with 4 correct margins)

Missed out on a couple of close games with New Orleans, Tampa, Houston and Carolina all going down on the wrong side of close scorelines, while Chicago’s surprising ugly win also caused me another lost point. Fortunately, my faith in Denver, Kansas City and Baltimore was rewarded, whereas the likes of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh continued to annoy me by winning in difficult circumstances.

Where does that leave us this week? Let’s give it a look.

Dallas 41, Seattle 35

An actual good Prime game – even if it was slightly marred by more laundry than is in a teenager’s basket following a weekend home alone. Al Michaels continued his drift into the Martin Tyler/grumpy old man of the NFL with a few spiky comments, and an otherwise usually decent Seattle defense collapsed to somehow lose a game in which they scored 35 points. Jamal Adams might want to spend less time baiting reporters and more time working out what the fuck’s going on in that secondary. Dallas, meanwhile, keep doing what they’re doing and beating teams they should beat – their first big test in a while will come next week against their division rivals in Philly.

Indianapolis (6-5) at Tennessee (4-7)

Colour me shocked to find that Indy are 6-5, and still pretty much holding a chance of the playoffs going into week 13. It’s a credit to this roster and the coaching staff that they’ve largely found a way to be a competitive, tough out each week. I fully expect them to win here over a poor Tennessee side, who are largely just using the remainder of the season to evaluate Will Levis.

Indy, one score.

LA Chargers (4-7) at New England (2-9)

Christ. I’m going to have to pick the Chargers, because, records be damned, New England may actually be the worst team in the league. If LA lose this, Brandon Staley shouldn’t even be allowed on the plane home.

LA, two scores plus.

Detroit (8-3) at New Orleans (5-6)

This is a nasty little game for Detroit, and probably not the game you want coming off a surprise loss to Green Bay last week (technically!). I don’t really know what New Orleans are, particularly as they keep losing games that they ought to be winning (last week being a prime example). I’ll pick Detroit, as I think they’re a better team, but more than most weeks, they really, really need to prove it today.

Detroit, one score

Atlanta (5-6) at NY Jets (4-7)

It says something about the absurdity of the NFL playoff picture that Atlanta are potentially the four seed despite being one of the worst coached teams in the league. RANK TEAMS BY STANDING FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!!!…

Anyway, one bad team takes on another, Atlanta should win, because the Jets are starting a gardener at QB. They probably won’t and fuck my picks up again.

Atlanta, one score.

Arizona (2-10) at Pittsburgh (7-4)

Zzzz. Pittsburgh win but make it harder than it needs to be.

Pittsburgh, one score.

Denver (6-5) at Houston (6-5)

Finally, a game worth caring about. The Broncos have found something in the last few games, whereas Houston have been the pleasant surprise of the year, and CJ Stroud is great fun to watch. It’s hard to choose a winner here, especially given I like Houston, but I’m going to take Denver, who after a very difficult start, seem to be rolling downhill, even possibly towards the playoffs.

Denver, one score.

Miami (8-3) at Washington (4-8)

Easiest game to pick this week possibly – Miami wins easily against a Washington team that’s long since given up on their season.

Miami, two scores plus.

Carolina (1-10) at Tampa Bay (4-7)

I got burned picking Carolina last week in a winnable game – so burned that Frank Reich got fired for it. This would normally fall in the winnable category, but with Tampa at home and an interim coach, should be an easy win for Tampa.

Tampa Bay, two scores plus.

Cleveland (7-4) at LA Rams (5-6)

A good matchup here, as McVay’s ever-useful offense goes up against an excellent Cleveland defense. Cleveland’s inability to put points on the board cost them last week, and sadly, I see that happening again here, as I think the Rams generate just enough offense to put them away, and remain alive in the wildcard hunt.

Rams, one score.

San Francisco (8-3) at Philadelphia (10-1)

The big game! Last year’s NFC title rematch, but this time with intact elbows. I’m expecting a classic, but in a first for this Cranky Englishman, I’m taking George Kittle and McCaffrey having big games, particularly given Philly’s holes at LB, and helping us win a close, probably classic, one.

Niners, one score.

Kansas City (8-3) at Green Bay (5-6)

KC look back to something approaching their normal level lately, while Green Bay have actually given life to their season with a good recent run. It looks like Jordan Love might have something, if only Matt LaFleur can find his playcalling groove. One suspects that next season rather than this might be Green Bay’s time, as the younger players mature, but they should give KC a decent game, especially at home.

Kansas City, one score.

Cincinnati (5-6) at Jacksonville (8-3)

In normal circumstances, a close game, but in the year of QB injuries, Cincinnati losing Burrow hurts way more than it does to most teams. They could barely generate offense last week, and I can’t see that changing, whereas Jacksonville looks like a juggernaut waiting to happen.

Jacksonville, two scores plus.

See you next week! Do you want to tell me I’m a genius, idiot, or somewhere in between? Comment, tweet or email me.

Hello, hello, hello. It’s taken me a while to sit down and write this week’s as the slate of games stink like your leftover Thanksgiving turkeys.

But do my picks? Let’s take a look at last week.

Porter vs The World – 84-71 (10-6 last week, 5 correct margins)

I picked 16 games last week for the first time ever, having taken the Thanksgiving games into account. If I’d remembered the Black Friday game, I’d have got to 17, and would notch up another one for the win column. Alas, it was still a pretty good week all told, the main things costing me being Pittsburgh, Seattle and Kansas City all losing close ones, and Washington shitting their pants and simultaneously falling down the stairs on the Sunday. On Thanksgiving itself I went a disappointing 1-2, with my lack of faith in my own team and Detroit being Detroit costing me some needed points. Still, I’m pretty comfortably over .500 for the year (currently sitting at .541), and hopefully we can keep that momentum rolling this week. So, what’s on the docket?

New Orleans (5-5) at Atlanta (4-6)

There’s a lot of tough games to pick this week, largely because a lot feature mediocre-to-poor teams playing against each other. This is one such game, where an odd New Orleans outfit take on an Atlanta outfit that’s largely stopped playing for their coach, which is more than fair enough, as watching him with weapons brings to mind Harry Dunne.

New Orleans, one score.

Pittsburgh (6-4) at Cincinnati (5-5)

I’m tired of talking about this terrible Pittsburgh team. They’ve fired Matt Canada and will no doubt find a way to win this game to annoy me, especially as they’re facing a team with Scott Hattieberg at QB. I feel for Cincinnati, but the season’s over.

Pittsburgh, one score.

Carolina (1-9) at Tennessee (3-7)

Get ready, Carolina fans, ’cause I’m picking you this week! There’s not really rhyme, logic or stats behind this, I just think Tennessee are awful and if they’re going to drop a game inexplicably, I feel like this might be it. Carolina are strange, as despite picking a QB 1st overall, hiring an offensive-minded head coach, and acquiring offensive weapons, it’s their defense keeping scores down and keeping them in games. Hopefully Bryce Young does well enough here to guide them past a pretty horrible Titans team.

Carolina, one score.

Tampa Bay (4-6) at Indianapolis (5-5)

Similar to the New Orleans/Atlanta game, it’s which mediocre team to give a W to here. Having watched both relatively closely, I’m gonna take Tampa, as despite their record,I think there’s a little more upside to them as a team as a whole. Indy, to me, are just playing out the string without Anthony Richardson, aka the only entertaining thing about watching them.

Tampa Bay, one score.

New England (2-8) at NY Giants (3-8)

This may be the worst game of the entire season.

There’s marginally more hope in the Giants, so I’ll take them, but oh boy is that damning with faint praise.

Giants, one score.

Jacksonville (7-3) at Houston (6-4)

Now this is a game. Two entertaining sides with great offenses in a huge divisional matchup. Exactly what this awful slate of games needed, like the adrenaline shot to a heroined up Mia Wallace in Pulp Fiction. Picking a winner isn’t easy, but I’ll go with my gut and pick the team I like more in terms of coaching and close situations, which is this surprising and very fun Houston team. It’s going to be a very entertaining end to the year in that division.

Houston, one score.

Cleveland (7-3) at Denver (5-5)

This isn’t bad either. Denver rising up like their famous animated fan Randy Marsh:

Facing off against a Cleveland team that proves to their own front office that spending millions of guaranteed money on a sex offender wasn’t necessary to make them a contender. Another tough one to pick a winner, but I like this surging Denver side, even if I hate that Russell Wilson is suddenly good again. Home field breaks ties.

Denver, one score.

LA Rams (4-6) at Arizona (2-9)

This one’s not easy, if only because Arizona have been good at hanging around in games, and the Rams seem to like to follow up a good game with a disappointment. The Rams are better, and should win and keep alive a slightly-desperate playoff bid, but I’d expect a close one.

Rams, one score.

Kansas City (7-3) at Las Vegas (5-6)

I wouldn’t have even given this the courtesy of a few lines when McDaniels was still in town, but the Antonio Pierce led Raiders are a different proposition, winning games they should win and keeping close the ones they’d be expected to lose. Sadly for them, I think they keep this pattern alive, as KC have a close loss to avenge, and have proven to be their best this year when facing adversity. A close win for a Chiefs team that isn’t blowing anyone away, but will hang around in January.

Kansas City, one score.

Buffalo (6-5) at Philadelphia (9-1)

Even though Buffalo did rediscover the elixir of offense last week, they unfortunately don’t get to play the Jets every week, and against a Philly side who keep grinding out the wins like some tremendously-irritating, cheesesteak-fueled buzzsaw, I can’t really back them. Close, as every game has been so far (I haven’t picked a blowout yet), but Philadelphia take a 10-1 record into next week’s titanic clash with the Niners. Hide your elbow joints, the Eagles are coming.

Philadelphia, one score.

Baltimore (8-3) at LA Chargers (4-6)

I can finally pick a blowout, because that Chargers defense is awful, and no amount of Brandon Staley’s Kevin Keegan impressions will change that. The only thing that would give me pause is the Ravens habit of randomly choking away winnable games, but I’ll stick with my gut here and say an easy Baltimore processional win.

Baltimore, two scores plus.

Chicago (3-8) at Minnesota (6-5)

I really like Josh Dobbs and Minnesota, and at home, I’d back them to do their job against the Bears. I’m not sure what the Bears are, besides slated to pick high twice in next year’s draft, but they seem to be simultaneously not as bad as and worse than their actual record. I’m shocked this is on MNF, but I reckon the Vikes keep it rolling and some omnious music starts playing in Detroit. Surely not….?

Vikings, one score.

Enjoy the week! I’ll be glued to Houston/Jax most likely, and praying my upset picks come in. Do you want to tell me I’m a genius, idiot, or somewhere in between? Comment, tweet or email me.

xx

Porter vs The World – 74-65 – 8-5 last week, 7 correct margins

Easily my best week in terms of choosing the margin of victory, although the natural combination of my conservativeness (small c, fuck the Tories) and a lot of close games really helped. I dropped surprising ones with Buffalo, Baltimore, and Atlanta all losing, whereas my lack of faith in CJ Stroud (who I love) and the 49ers (who I love and support) cost me two more potential wins. Not a bad record though after a rough start.

Right then…this week.

Baltimore 34, Cincinnati 20
Lots of controversy here, as Joe Burrow had more wrist problems than a 14 year old who’s just discovered xvideos, and Mark Andrews was lost for the rest of the season due to a so called ‘hip drop’ tackle. I had no idea what one of these was til Thursday, and I thought it was something to do with being a lyrical gangsta, to be honest.

If you’ll allow me to editorialise a second (you can’t really stop me, it’s a written piece), I’ve had a couple of thoughts this week. First off, ‘Another Sunny Day’ by Belle & Sebastian is a great song and absolutely beautiful.

Anyway, I’ve seen a lot of conjecture from Ravens fans that hip-drop tackles should now be banned as it caused them to lose one of their best players for the rest of the year. I’d first like to say, if I may – bollocks. The NFL is already almost impossible for defensive players – you can’t hit high, you can’t hit ‘defenceless’ (which seems to change with every week) players, and you have to bring QBs down with a strongly worded letter. If we continue to ban forms of tackling, where are defenders supposed to hit? It’s already a very small section of the body that’s ‘legal’ to hit – take ‘hip-drop’ tackles away, and the NFL is either going to become flag football or the Sarcastaball seen in South Park.

I’m no alpha male, and I don’t believe in the world going ‘soft’, but it does bother me when I keep hearing suggestions to make the game safer and safer every year. Newsflash, idiots: half the appeal of the NFL is the violence, the physicality, the athleticism. Take that away, and you’ve just got netball in pads.

Far more infuriating is ex-players sanctimonious caterwauling, particularly when it comes from someone like Bart Scott, who was no stranger to causing injury himself:

I think what I’m trying to say is – don’t be a hypocrite, fuck off, and leave us to our enjoyment.

Anyway, game wise, a good win for Baltimore, and between the Bengals’ combined loss of the game and Joe Burrow, probably the last we see of them this season. They were fun to watch for all of three weeks there.

Moving on then – mercifully – to this week.

Dallas (6-3) at Carolina (1-8)

Not since Shaggy’s 1993 hit have so many people said ‘Oh Carolina’ in unison. Hard to see anything but a Dallas win, easily, here.

Meanwhile, Frank Reich has taken back playcalling in Carolina, which feels like a last-ditch desperate attempt to save his job – something that looks impossible at this point.

Dallas, two scores plus.

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Cleveland (6-3)

I’m at a bit of a loss as to how either of these teams is 6-3, and also with an outside shot of their division, especially with the Ravens’ injury issues. There’s no quarterback between them (literally, in Cleveland’s case, following Deshaun Watson being ruled out for the season), so I can only assume it’s defense all the way. This makes it a very hard game to pick, but one of the only nice things you can say about the Steelers’ QB situation is that it is settled and will have had time to practice, which is more, really, than Cleveland’s had all season. I’ll take Pittsburgh in yet another ugly one.

Pittsburgh, one score.

Chicago (3-7) at Detroit (7-2)

I keep waiting for Detroit to drop a game they’re expected to win, and every week, they don’t. They tried their best last week, making the Chargers look good for a while, but still pulled out the victory, while Jahmyr Gibbs seems to finally be out of witness protection and actually looks like every inch the weapon he was predicted to be. Chicago, meanwhile, get Justin Fields back this week. This will have no impact on the outcome, but it might at least make it slightly more interesting.

Detroit, two scores plus.

LA Chargers (4-6) at Green Bay (3-6)

An irrelevant game between two irrelevant sides, which probably means lots of points and surprising entertainment. I don’t really have a strong opinion on either side, bar the Chargers being the biggest waste of talent in the NFL, so I’ll say home team rules and take GB.

Green Bay, one score.

Arizona (2-8) at Houston (5-4)

I like both of these teams for different reasons – Arizona has ran an expansion-level roster to two surprising wins (although given they were over Dallas and Atlanta, two of the biggest paper tigers in league history, maybe not that surprising), while Houston is a sneaky bubble-playoff candidate being led by a staff coaching their asses off with a QB who looks like a potential new star in the NFL. I like both coaching staffs, but really, this has to be a game Houston wins – part of being a bubble team is acting like one, and beating the teams you should beat. If Ryans can get his defense to play better against scrambling QBs than he did in San Francisco, they should wrap this one up. I think Arizona will keep it close though, as they’ve largely done all year.

Houston, one score.

Tennessee (3-6) at Jacksonville (6-3)

Jacksonville suffered a surprise battering last week at the hands of the Niners, but this feels like the perfect game to rebound back in, against a poor Tennessee squad who are largely playing out the string at this point. I can’t shake a nagging feeling that Jacksonville aren’t quite as good as their record, which is why I expect this to be close, but ultimately they should be winning this one.

Jacksonville, one score.

Las Vegas (5-5) at Miami (6-3)

The Raiders being at .500 is one of the most baffling things in the NFL – they’ve got a bottom 10 team on both offense and defense. Still, they’ve beaten the teams in front of them the last two weeks, even if it has only been a Giants team on life support and a Jets team that’s heading for the same ward. Vegas’ 5 wins are over both New York teams, the Patriots, Green Bay, and Denver. They’re the literal definition of ‘you can only beat the crap in front of you’. This week they run into a Miami team that, statistically, should be better than 6-3, and worryingly, have only lost to other contenders (Buffalo – when they were one – Philadelphia and Kansas City). There’ll be time to worry about that in the future, though. A win for Miami, although possibly closer than you might think – Antonio Pierce, if nothing else, has got the boys playing hard for him.

Miami, one score.

NY Giants (2-8) at Washington (4-6)

OK, so we all knew that Daboll was pulling some magic tricks last year, but I didn’t realise he’d traded his soul and a witches curse for one good season from Daniel Jones. This team are flatlining rapidly, and more importantly, seem to be revolting (I certainly think that when I watch them play). Hard to see Washington losing here, they do sometimes play down to their opponent, and that defense is awful, but no one’s as bad as the Giants right now.

Washington, two scores plus.

Tampa Bay (4-5) at San Francisco (6-3)

This should actually be a closer game than records suggest. While I’m no fan of Mayfield nor Tampa’s offense in general, it can generate some noise and points, whereas Tampa’s defense has been good in pretty much every game. It’s an interesting 5-day stretch for the Niners, as two wins, at home today and on Thursday in Seattle, probably wraps up the division and, I would’ve thought, a high playoff seeding. This is the easier one of the two to win, but they need to do a professional job and get the job done. I never like picking my team, especially in what’s such an obvious trap game, but I think we’ll just get it done. Brock Purdy to me.

San Fran, one score.

NY Jets (4-5) at Buffalo (5-5)

When Rodgers went down in Week 1, I’d have lost a lot of money if you’d bet me these teams would be a game apart heading into Week 11. Buffalo has completely flatlined and started to get ‘bad Josh’, and has responded by firing Ken Dorsey, which may actually be slightly unfair, as they’ve the 3rd ranked offense in the country, but the 23rd ranked defense. It smacks a little of scapegoating, and perhaps it will fire up the Bills, who knows, but something needs to, as their window, once seemingly wide open, is shutting rapidly. I never know what to make of the Jets – they can ride that defense to another win, or that anaemic offense can cost them it. I’ll take Buffalo, but this is one of the tougher picks this week.

Buffalo, one score.

Seattle (6-3) at LA Rams (3-6)

If Seattle are as good as their record, this should be routine, but they’ve had a few wobbles against poor sides. It’s a strange one, as they’re not particularly outstandingly good at anything, but seem to find ways to win every week. I’d probably, on balance, back them to do the same here, but in a divisional game, it’ll be at the least, interesting. The Rams are the definition of a middling team this year – it’s almost like Jeff Fisher is back – and they’ll put up a fight, but I’ll take Seattle.

Seattle, one score.

Minnesota (6-4) at Denver (4-5)

Minnesota’s turnaround is almost as astonishing as their opponents’ this week – both teams were looking to be heading for absolute hell at the start of the season, but have rebounded to be at least respectable (in Denver’s case), and often entertaining (in Minnesota’s). Whether Josh Dobbs can keep it rolling here is ultimately what will decide things, but I have a sneaking feeling Denver pull another one out, off the back of Russell Wilson, who is quietly putting together a pretty decent season under Sean Payton.

Denver, one score.

Philadelphia (8-1) at Kansas City (7-2)

The kind of game primetime was actually invented for, and by far the hardest pick of the week. If you’re reading this, you know how good both teams are, but both have struggled at times this year to show their best. That said, they usually pull out wins anyway. Who would I take here? As with all tough picks, home advantage rules – I’ll take KC and Andy Reid to put a bit of hurting on his old employers, but in all honesty, anything other than a close game either way would be a huge shock.

Kansas, one score.

Alright, all the best, enjoy Week….

I thought that, since it’s Thanksgiving this week, I’d break the habit of a lifetime and pick the midweek games. Let’s see if they can be nice bonuses to my tally or a weight on my shoulders!

Green Bay at Detroit

I’m finally going to see Detroit win a Thanksgiving game! It’s hard to imagine them losing here, again, another game they should be winning, if they’re the team we all think they are.

Detroit, two scores plus.

Washington at Dallas

Dallas’s offense versus that poor Washington D feels like a mismatch. Easy one for Dallas, I think, although I hope Washington keep it close.

Dallas, one score.

San Francisco at Seattle

I think this might be a game too far for the Niners. The Seattle games are always close, and I’d expect a split 1-1 between them this season, and if Seattle’s going to win one, you’d think it would be at home, in primetime, in front of their shrieking piped-in crowd noise. Hopefully it’s a classic, as always, though.

Seattle, one score.

Got feedback/hate? Comment, tweet or email me.

Porter Versus The World (66-60, 9-4 last week with 4 correct margins)

A very good week and I’m nicely in credit now. The Ravens looked like the best team in football (will it last?), whereas my belief in Houston, Minnesota and Cincinnati in tight games was nicely born out. The only major surprises that I got very wrong were largely down to Miami’s machine-gun offense turning into a pop gun against KC, and the Raiders experiencing post-Patriots euphoria in absolutely folding the execrable Giants.

What about this week?

Chicago 16, Carolina 13

The NFL have honestly defrauded Amazon by making them pay so much for shitty games like this, and should probably be investigated by the SEC. I don’t think there’s a lot to say about this game, other than I quietly admire Chicago for managing to find ways to win occasionally in spite of their roster, quarterback and general coaching talent. Meanwhile, it seems like Carolina is ready to run Bryce Young out of town, but, well, not so fast, dear friends; I don’t think Steve Young could succeed in this setup. Frank Reich is looking like a horrible hire.

Indianapolis (4-5) vs. New England (2-7)

This is probably the worst atrocity perpetuated on Germany since the Dresden bombings. I’m astounded that Indy are 4-5, although it probably helps to play some of the shit they have so far this season. They can be fun, and dear god will they ever have to provide it against a New England team that has a strong argument for being the worst team in the league. Belichick continues to sound like he will go out in disgrace, at least from New England, if not the league. He may be one of the best coaches of all time (Bill Walsh is the greatest, suck my balls), but time waits for no one, and he’s increasingly looking like his mentor Bill Parcells, marooned on an island of old football thought while the world turns around him.

Indy, one score.

Cleveland (5-3) at Baltimore (7-2)

Ooh, this is a cool game. I’m quietly impressed with the Browns, even if they are proving that they should never have paid Deshaun Watson all that massage money, whereas the Ravens have a strong case to be considered the best team in the league, if not currently by record. I keep waiting for another Ravens letdown game like they had against the Steelers, but I’m not seeing that coming this week. Cleveland’s defense keeps it close – I think – but the Ravens are a buzzsaw right now.

Baltimore, one score.

Houston (4-4) at Cincinnati (5-3)

Okay, I really love Houston – I think Ryans is coaching his ass off, and Stroud is probably one of the most fun players to watch in the league right now, and combining with a Shanahan-style offense and Tank Dell is helping him put up some insane numbers – buuuut, I can’t take them here. Cincinnati are looking dangerous after a poor start, and at home, I think they’ll just have too much, but I’m looking forward to seeing this.

Cincinnati, one score.

San Francisco (5-3) at Jacksonville (6-2)

My boys need this one, but with a defense stuttering more than Gareth Gates singing Umbrella, Trent Williams still likely out, and everyone tossing themselves off over Purdy struggling without 3 of his best players for the last two weeks, it’s an avalanche of things going against the Niners. I also really like Jacksonville, and they’re at home, so, sorry boys, we’re going down, down, in an earlier round.

Jacksonville, one score.

New Orleans (5-4) at Minnesota (5-4)

Wow, it’s a shock to me that both these teams are 5-4, largely because Minnesota started horribly and are now starting Josh Dobbs at Quarterback, and New Orleans’ best receivers keep trying to go to jail rather than have Derek Carr throw to them. I like Minnesota as an overall team more than New Orleans, and they’re at home, so I’m backing them to succeed here and keep up their positive momentum. I will caveat this by saying New Orleans’ defense has played well all season, and shutting down a guy who’s been in Minnesota for 10 days wouldn’t be a huge shock. Still…

Minnesota, one score.

Green Bay (3-5) at Pittsburgh (5-3)

GB’s record is what the Steelers’ should be. The big story this week is that George Pickens is unhappy. In other news, the sky is blue. I’m sorry, I just don’t care about either of these teams or this game, neither is going to be a threat in January, but I’m sure the Steelers probably win it, as they’re at home, and Green Bay have yet to develop the spine and mentality to win on the road.

Pittsburgh, one score.

Tennessee (3-5) at Tampa Bay (3-5)

The quality of these games is dropping off at an insane level – these are two teams largely slopping around going nowhere. Will Levis at least gives Tennessee something to shout about, but against Tampa’s defense, it might be a tough one for him. Usual Cranky picks rules apply here – when in doubt about two average sides, pick the home team. Tampa wins.

Tampa, one score.

Atlanta (4-5) at Arizona (1-8)

Quickest pick of the week. Even Arthur Smith can’t lose this one. Can he?

Atlanta, two scores plus.

Detroit (6-2) at LA Chargers (4-4)

Here we go again, Detroit. You’re proving yourself again, and this is a game you have to win. You’re playing an inconsistent and floundering Chargers team. I’m picking you to win. Try not to let the side down. Imagine playing a game on Thanksgiving that means something! Imagine playing in January! You can do it! Come on!

Chargers fans? I love watching your QB, but I refuse to take your franchise seriously until you fire that gibbering idiot of a head coach.

Lions, one score.

NY Giants (2-7) at Dallas (5-3)

^{“Giants aren’t in primetime, Giants aren’t in primetime, la la la la…”}

Right, okay, New York. For every time I’ve defended you, for every time I’ve said Daniel Jones is OK, for every time last year I put up Daboll for coach of the year, and for every time I pick you in spite of the fact you’re starting a Goodfellas character at QB, beat Dallas.

OK, you won’t, at all, but I had to try. Can Tommy Devito become the second most famous guy with that name? I doubt it. Dallas can’t manage a clock at the end of the game, and Dak Prescott is the 2020s Tony Romo, but they’ll have enough here to beat a Giants team circling the drain.

Dallas, two scores.

Washington (4-5) at Seattle (5-3)

Despite the reasonable closeness in records, this is a falsehood. Seattle got shown up last week for not quite being the Ravens, but then, few are. They are, however, a good team with a good defense who should have more than enough to beat the Commanders, who are basically treading water between being good and being bad, not unlike their new owner’s former team, the 76ers, before they started to trust the process….

Oh god.

I’m so sorry, Washington.

Seattle, one score.

NY Jets (4-4) at Las Vegas (4-5)

And in the blessed name of Elvis well I just let it blast
‘Til my TV lay in pieces there at my feet
And they busted me for disturbing the almighty peace
Judge said “What you got in your defense son?”
“Fifty-seven channels and nothin’ on”

^{Bruce Springsteen}

Who cares. Also, who the fuck is choosing primetime games? I’ll take a buoyant Raiders, because Antonio Pierce does this mad thing and talks to his players like human beings, and shock of shocks, they seem to like it.

Raiders, one score.

Denver (3-5) at Buffalo (5-4)

Ha, christ. It should be Buffalo, it should be Buffalo easily, and if it isn’t, then Buffalo’s season’s basically over. I’ll take desperation winning out, which is what I’d be doing if I was American and this was my primetime viewing.

Buffalo, one score.

Got feedback/hate? Comment, tweet or email me.

Hello, hello. Gunpowder, treason, plot, and German NFL games. Ja! Let’s hurry up then and get to it. Starting with last week:

Porter vs The World (57-56, 8-7 last week, 3 correct scores)

Just barely keeping myself above .500 with a decent week last week, despite some surprising losses for the likes of Atlanta, Kansas City and my own terrible team. Some of my bigger bets didn’t come off either, as New England couldn’t pull off the upset, and the Steelers continued to piss me off by losing when I picked them to win. Still, thanks to the obvious ones coming in, the Giants failing to manage a game properly, and the Josh McDaniels era coming to a predictably inglorious end, I’m in credit for the week.

Oh, one more time:

Pittsburgh 20, Tennessee 16

Remember I said about Pittsburgh pissing me off? Well, here we are. This team is somehow 5-3 despite a garbage offensive system, one of the worst QBs in the NFL, and one of the most overrated coaches in NFL history. Just fuck off, you’re shit, and yet somehow you keep getting served teams at their absolute worst.

Miami (6-2) vs. Kansas City (6-2)

Why does the UK get shite like Falcons vs Jaguars when Germany gets this game? Two of the best offenses in the league, although one doesn’t look like it of late, and I think this should be a great advert to our Teutonic friends as to what the NFL is all about. I’m taking Miami, as they’ve been acclimatised to Germany all week, and I actually think they’re the better team as it stands.

Miami, one score.

Minnesota (4-4) at Atlanta (4-4)

We wrote Minnesota off too early, at least until Kirk Cousins achilles banjoed itself last week. Without him, and a choice between the oldest rookie in the world and Josh Dobbs, it looks as grim as the weather in MInneapolis for the Vikes, or it would, if they weren’t playing an absolute waste of talent in Atlanta. Arthur Smith is an absolute fraud and the Falcons have an incredible ability to lose games they should be winning. Fuck it, let’s start off bold. Skol Vikings.

Minnesota, one score.

Seattle (5-2) at Baltimore (6-2)

On paper, and in reality, very close. Two teams both capable of playing up to a very good level and playing down to a very bad one. It’s hard to know who to take here, but I’ll say home team rules, and give Baltimore another big win. I like their matchup against the Seattle defense, but it’s going to be close and high scoring, one feels.

Baltimore, one score.

Arizona (1-7) at Cleveland (4-3)

No brainer here I think. Arizona are now starting Scott Hattieberg at QB, while Cleveland’s defense is putting them on course to defy their fans expectations and break their heart by failing to make the playoffs on the last game of the season. A poor offense keeps the score down, though.

Cleveland, one score.

LA Rams (3-5) at Green Bay (2-5)

Two teams similar in record, but it feels to me like they’re heading in opposite directions. The natives are restless in Green Bay, whereas the Rams are still largely outperforming expectations and seem to stay around in most games. I think they’re better than Green Bay and win this one.

LA Rams, one score.

Tampa Bay (3-4) at Houston (3-4)

This is quite difficult, as Tampa are showing signs of regression to the mean (heading back towards the Baker Mayfield line), whereas Houston dropped a bad one last week against Carolina. I like Houston to bounce back, but in a close one – it’s a big test for CJ Stroud against a good defense this week.

Houston, one score.

Washington (3-5) at New England (2-6)

I’ve realised I’m not saying a lot about these games, and the truth is, they’re hard to pick, because some of them are just outright ugly and horrible – this game being a prime example. Washington seem capable of putting points up, but not winning games, whereas New England look capable of winning if they could put some points on the board. Hard to know who to take, but with Washington tanking following the deadline and trading two pass rush threats, I’ll take New England, who must be one of the teams I show faith in that least deserve it.

New England, one score.

Chicago (2-6) at New Orleans (4-4)

Difficult to look past New Orleans here – I don’t rate them, but they found some offense last year, while the Bears are the US’s most volatile employer, with a running backs coach getting fired this week. Montez Sweat and his huge deal or not, I’ve got to take the better team, and that’s New Orleans. It’s not quite as bleak as it seems in Chicago, but it won’t be enough to help them here.

New Orleans, one score.

Indianapolis (3-5) at Carolina (1-6)

Another tough pick, as do I take an inconsistent and maddening Indy team starting their backup QB, or do I back Carolina to take last week’s momentum into this week at home? Interesting fact – the Panthers have quietly got the NFL’s 4th best defense. What that says about Bryce Young, I’m not sure…

I’ll take Indy to manufacture just enough offense to get home here.

Indy, one score.

NY Giants (2-6) at Las Vegas (3-5)

Does anyone care?

I’ll take the Giants, they’re not being coached by the janitor. Also, Raiders fans, I’ll wait for your grovelling apologies for calling me dense because I said the ‘Patriot Way’ doesn’t work and Josh McDaniels isn’t actually a football genius, you fuckwits.

Giants, one score.

Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (7-1)

Probably one of the better games this week, but not as close as painted. Philly do their best to lose every week, whereas Dallas are the definition of a paper tiger. I don’t actually think that this game will be close – I forsee the Eagles finally playing up to their record and stomping on Dallas, just as the 49ers did earlier this season. Sorry Dallas, you’re just not that good.

Philadelphia, two scores plus.

Buffalo (5-3) at Cincinnati (4-3)

Are the Bengals doing it again, and rising from the ashes to go on a playoff run? I suspect this game will tell us a lot, not least if their current momentum is sustainable. Buffalo are kind of flailing around trying not to drown in the water currently, much like the 49ers – two hotly-tipped sides going through some problems at the moment. Josh Allen seems to be ailing, and despite them adding Ras-Al-Ghul Douglas at the trade deadline, I reckon Burrow keeps it rolling and Cincinnati starts to look dangerous again. Side note, the AFC North has four teams with winning records, somehow. Talk about a coin flip.

Cincinnati, one score.

LA Chargers (3-4) at NY Jets (4-3)

Fuck knows why this is in primetime – whoever’s scheduling these games these days wants relieving of their jobs. I’ve a choice between a team vastly underperforming its talent level due to bad coaching and a team vastly overperforming its Quarterback and roster deficiencies due to good coaching. I’m not sure about the Jets GM, but one can’t shit on Robert Saleh and the job he’s done at the Jets, considering how little talent he’s had to work with, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. I’ll not take them here though, as I think this is a last chance saloon game for the Chargers, and they’ll score enough to win it. Surely?!

Chargers, one score.

Got feedback/hate? Comment, tweet or email me.

Well, Week 8, already, which is absolutely insane to think about. Pretty much all the ‘unstoppable’ teams have been stopped, pretty much all the bad teams are now officially bad, and Halloween and the infantile love of spookiness by grown human beings is almost over. But how did it affect my picks?

Porter vs The World (49-49, 4-8 last week, 3 correct scores)

Ugh. I’m now at 49-49, which makes sense because I support the 49ers, and they’re one of many teams who let me down last week, including the Bills, Packers, Commanders, among others. I was also let down by the Raiders, but that’s fucking hilarious, so no harm, no foul. Ultimately, a bunch of close games went just the wrong way, but it’s a crap week, no excuses. Let’s see if I can do better this week.

Buffalo 24, Tampa Bay 18
I just really don’t like Buffalo right now – they should be far, far better than they are. They followed a really poor performance in losing to New England with a poor late win over a pretty dreadful Tampa Bay side. Nothing about this is convincing, but in October, a win’s a win. Tampa are just spinning their wheels in football purgatory, which is pretty much defined by having Baker Mayfield as your QB. Amusingly, they’ve a chance of winning the South, largely because the division is fucking awful.

Houston (3-3) at Carolina (0-6)

Stroud vs Young, and as much as it’d be so easy to judge ‘the best QB’ on this game, you have to take the fullness of their situations into account too. Houston has consistently played above its level under DeMeco Ryans, have an offensive identity, and a few pieces like Tank Dell to build around. Carolina have been scrappy, but seem to be grasping for something to tie their future to. I’m not convinced that Frank Reich was the best hire, but it’s hard to judge him with this roster. The misery continues, sorry Carolina.

Houston, one score.

LA Rams (3-4) at Dallas (4-2)

With the hype Dallas has got, you’d be forgiven for thinking they were having a much better year than the Rams, but I don’t think there’s a lot in this. The Rams are fun, but have been finding ways to lose of late, whereas Dallas are annoyingly effective, but also very good at beating up on worse teams. I can’t, unfortunately, see that changing here.

Dallas, one score.

Minnesota (3-4) at Green Bay (2-4)

Minnesota are alive, it would seem, although they shouldn’t have any hopes of the division, unless the Lions collapse. They got a good win last week off a very poor 49ers performance, but given the last rites were being read to this team and organisation, not least by me, three weeks ago, they deserve their moment. I expect them to keep the momentum alive against Green Bay, who have an inexperienced roster and a pretty terrible coach, which is an awful combination.

Minnesota, one score.

New Orleans (3-4) at Indianapolis (3-4)

Both these teams are mediocre for their own reasons – New Orleans has an overleveraged squad with a poor coach, and a pretty terrible QB, whereas Indianapolis are rebuilding with what looks like a decently exciting young roster, although they’re without their neophyte QB. Still, Gardner Minshew is probably better than this version of Derek Carr, and I’ll take Indy at home, because ultimately, I think they’re better and on a better trajectory. This thinking doesn’t always benefit me (see: Detroit last week) but my gut says the Colts are a better team and prove it.

Indy, one score.

New England (2-5) at Miami (5-2)

It would seem there’s a little life in Belichick yet, as he produced maybe one last coaching masterclass last week to once again hold the indian sign over his divisional foes in Buffalo. In Miami, he faces another team who he’s traditionally found a way to beat. Of course, he didn’t earlier in the season, but it was a lot closer than it ought to have been. Miami are a good, if confusing team with no defense, and if you’re pinning your hopes on Jalen Ramsey, then you’ve got bigger problems. Screw it, upset special: I’m taking New England to edge out their second divisional foe in as many weeks. Miami are due a letdown game, and I’m gonna stick my neck out and say this will be it.

New England, one score.

NY Jets (3-3) at NY Giants (2-5)

Find me a soul outside New York who wants to watch this abomination. The Jets, to be honest, are playing hard for their coach, despite not having a great deal of talent on offense, culminating in results like knocking off the Eagles – whereas the Giants are…well, their offensive line could’ve come straight out of The Replacements, and Keanu would probably be better than Daniel Jones or Tie-Rack Taylor, or whatever he wants to be called this week.

Jets, one score.

Jacksonville (5-2) at Pittsburgh (4-2)

Pittsburgh being 4-2 simply exists to irritate me, as they’ve somehow edged some genuinely terrible games against the Raiders, Ravens and Rams (so they like playing teams that start with R, apparently), despite being absolutely fucking dismal on offense. I’m actually going to pick them today though, as this feels like a classic Jacksonville game to lose – they’re such a good team with a propensity to play down to their opponent, and I can’t have nice things, or good teams to watch, so I’ll pick the throwback to flying wedge football that is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and we can have yet another year of mIKe tOmLIN IS onE Of The gReAtEst coAcHeS oF aLL tImE bullshiit.

Steelers, one score.

Atlanta (4-3) at Tennessee (2-4)

I’m at a loss who I think is worse here – an Atlanta team that misuses weapons like the Russian Army, or a Tennessee team that’s essentially got one big gun in Derrick Henry and a bunch of guys firing water pistols. Given that Tennessee is starting Will Levis, unless he’s a great deal better than I think he is, it feels like the Titans have shut down on the season, on winning, and possibly as a franchise. Atlanta wins in a game I couldn’t be paid to watch.

Atlanta, one score.

Philadelphia (6-1) at Washington (3-4)

Which of the following statements are true:

The NFL is institutionally racist

Eric Bieniemy is in fact not an offensive genius

That’s right, both. It continually irritates me having to talk about him and the Commanders because, for one, I can’t spell the guy’s name, and for two, the team he’s OCing sucks. Ron Rivera is playing out the string before he goes into a quiet retirement where he won’t have to spend half the next decade answering to sexual harrassers, while even accounting for the fact that he’s starting a guy who would be lucky to get a game in the XFL at QB, his offensive schemes have sucked, particularly last week in an absolutely horrendous divisional loss. Philly don’t convince me, but in this division, they really don’t have to, they just have to show up on time and get a competent pilot to fly them to road games, because the rest of the division is either paper tigers or poverty franchises. Easy win for Philly and the first blowout of the week.

Philadelphia, two scores plus.

Cleveland (4-2) at Seattle (4-2)

Cleveland are sneaky good, even without the super-handsy Deshaun Watson:

That defense is legitimate, and they’re generating enough offense even without giving half their salary cap to a sex offender. Seattle, meanwhile, keep picking up results, even if not always in convincing fashion. Geno Smith’s career rebirth is astonishing, though, and Pete Carroll, much as it makes me want to throw up bile until I’m nothing but a reincarnated lizard, deserves a ton of credit for what he’s doing with this team. It wasn’t that long ago I thought he was playing for retirement, but now it feels like he could coach forever – he’s found his energy again, and the team plays like it. I think this will be a good game, and were it in Cleveland, I’d take them, but I think the 12th man just gives the Seahawks the edge. I’ll be watching this closely.

Seattle, one score.

Baltimore (5-2) at Arizona (1-6)

We finally saw the team I think the Ravens are last week – they pulverised a team that arguably should’ve been on their level in Detroit, and Lamar Jackson looked like what he is and can consistently be – one of the best QBs in the NFL. Why it happened last week and not in the 6 games prior to that is anyone’s guess, but you’d expect them to keep the momentum rolling against Arizona, who continue to be fun to watch without really winning much. I’m expecting a fair few points in this one, but a relatively straightforward Baltimore win. Which probably means Baltimore don’t show up and somehow lose.

Baltimore, two scores plus.

Kansas City (6-1) at Denver (2-5)

Well, Denver did manage to fight for a win last week, but it’s fair to say they were playing a team that is about as bad, if not worse, than them in the Packers. Sorry, you can’t play them every week. This will be a rout.

Kansas, two scores plus.

Cincinnati (3-3) at San Francisco (5-2)

The narrative around the 49ers seems to be shifting after two poor games, and listening to most people, we’d be lucky to get a wildcard now. Never mind that our all-world left tackle is out (and probably misses today), our do-everything YAC monster is also out (missing today too), and our QB played half of last week with a concussion (great job, independent NFL neurologists), apparently this team is now bad and Joe Burrow is going to ‘shred’ us. Don’t take my word for it, take the word of the experts over at NFL.com. Not sure why we’re turning up to be honest.

Cincinnati can be an excellent team, but I think very little of their defense, and if there’s one team the 49ers d-line could have a bounceback game against, I’d wager it will be this one, with the Oakland A’s that protect Burrow on a weekly basis. Burrow keeps it close, largely because I expect Chase to have a good day against our…let’s call them ‘middling’…secondary, but I believe that even a brain damaged Brock Purdy gets this done, likely with a lot of help from Kittle and Aiyuk.

San Francisco, one score.

Chicago (2-5) at LA Chargers (2-4)

What I find interesting in this one is that, by record, the Chargers are almost as bad as Chicago, yet one coach is on the hotseat, constantly criticised, and their roster is torn apart by ‘experts’, whereas one is considered a good young team with a good quarterback that’s underperforming. On the surface I actually agree with it, but I do find the narratives interesting. Brandon Staley is, for some reason, bombproof in the national media, even as this team continues to fail to reach its potential. I like them to win here, just because Bagent is a nice fairytale, but the Bears are still poor, and unfortunately for those of us who like a laugh, he can’t play the Raiders every week. I fully expect them to keep this close, though, because it’s the Chargers, and this is not a pick I have huge confidence in.

Chargers, one score.

Las Vegas (3-4) at Detroit (5-2)

You can’t say much more about the Raiders than that, they seem utterly bereft of confidence, ideas and sense. Strangely, though, their record doesn’t really reflect either the above nor the stats – it’s hard to say, but it feels like they’ve benefitted from beating up some even worse teams than them, not unlike the Saints, for example. For Detroit, this is a game they absolutely must win if they want to be taken seriously – the mark of a good team is twofold – bouncing back from mistakes, but also beating the teams you are expected to beat. I’ll say they’re going to do it, and handily, but this is going to be a very interesting test of their skillset.

Detroit, two scores plus.

Enjoy!

Got feedback/hate? Comment, tweet or email me.